Fact Checker: Ted Cruz claims Donald Trump falling in Iowa polls

Introduction

'I recognize that Donald is dismayed that his poll numbers are falling in Iowa.” - Texas Sen. Ted Cruz

'In Iowa now, as you know, Ted, in the last three polls, I am beating you, so you shouldn't misrepresent how you are doing with the polls.” - Donald Trump, businessman

Source of claim

An exchange between GOP candidates Cruz and Trump during the Jan. 14, 2016 Republican presidential debate on Fox Business Network.

Analysis

This Fact Checker will focus on the Cruz part of the claim. Trump's claim is analyzed in a separate article posted on the Fact Checker website.

Trump hasn't been shy discussing his close eye on the polls since launching his campaign for president in June 2015, often including poll numbers as pillars of campaign speeches. As the campaign season intensifies, it's not surprising Cruz tried to thumb the eye on a topic sensitive to his rival.

Cruz has echoed the remark in subsequent campaign stops.

But is Cruz right?

Let's see if Cruz or Trump has a better handle on their positions among likely voters. Conceivably, both candidates could be accurate: Trump's poll numbers could be falling in Iowa, yet he could still be beating Cruz in the last three polls.

After announcing his candidacy, Trump quickly surged and by early August he had claimed the lead in polls of Iowans with about 20.3 percent support, according to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, which averages standings in reputable polls, such as Quinnipiac, Gravis, Fox News, Des Moines Register and Public Policy Polling.

Trump's Iowa numbers climbed as high as 28.3 percent in mid-September, before his number receded later that month and in October. The former reality television star fell as low as 20.6 percent at the end of October and early November.

Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon, overtook Trump for Iowa front-runner status for about three weeks in October and November.

Trump infamously quipped, 'How stupid are the people of Iowa?” at a Fort Dodge campaign stop in November.

Carson's stock dropped and Trump rose again. In early December, as front-runner, Trump had on average 27.5 percent support, according to Real Clear Politics. A CNN/ORC poll released on Dec. 7 showed Trump at 33 percent, trailed by Cruz at 20 percent in second place.

Over the next few weeks, Trump's poll numbers varied. Polls including Monmouth University, Loras College and Des Moines Register/Bloomberg, reported Trump at 19, 23, and 21, respectively. In the same window, Quinnipiac had Trump at 28, and Fox News at 26.

On average, Trump's numbers dipped slightly to about 24.2 percent support in mid-December.

At the same time, Cruz was catching fire. Cruz sat in the driver seat for nearly a month in Iowa, with support in the low 30th percentile, on average, according to Real Clear Politics.

Since the beginning of January, Cruz has sank down to around 26.7 percent, on average in the polls. Trump though has been gaining, with one or two digit fluctuations along the way, back up to 27.8 percent support, according to Real Clear Politics. Trump is back in the lead in several polls and as an average of polls.

Conclusion

Since early December, Trump's numbers in Iowa have been on an upward trajectory. Hovering at 27.8 percent, Trump's numbers are just short of his peak this campaign season, in which he's mostly been in the lead.

Cruz is wrong claiming Trump's Iowa poll numbers are falling, and in fact, the Texas senator's numbers are down in Iowa. The Fact Checker gives Cruz an F

for his claim from the debate.

Criteria

The Fact Checker team checks statements made by an Iowa political candidate/office holder or a national candidate/office holder about Iowa, or in advertisements that appear in our market. Claims must be independently verifiable. We give statements grades from A to F based on accuracy and context.

If you spot a claim you think needs checking, email us at factchecker@thegazette.com.

This Fact Checker was researched and written by B.A. Morelli.