Both rivals for congress wary of poll with big lead for Finkenauer

CEDAR RAPIDS - Polling over the past two days by the New York Times shows Democratic state Rep. Abby Finkenauer with a 15-point lead over U.S. Rep. Rod Blum, but the candidates aren't putting much stock in the results.

'First of all, it's the New York Times and most people know and understand their bias,” Blum said after seeing results from the first day of live polling in Iowa's 20-county 1st District.

'I could commission a poll tomorrow that shows me with a 15-point lead based on the turnout model and who they poll,” he said. 'So it's meaningless to me.”

Finkenauer's campaign manager, Kane Miller, called the poll a part of a bigger picture.

'This is just one poll and we expect this to be a competitive race all the way to Election Day,” Miller said.

'Abby's been running a personal campaign that's focused on the issues and values of this district, and she'll continue to do that,” he said.

Political handicappers have predicted Democrats are likely to pick up the seat this November.

Other polls also have shown Finkenauer leading Blum. According to an Emerson College poll, she leads by 5 points. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll showed a 6-point lead and Public Policy Polling showed it as a 1-point race.

Asked if the second day of polling had showed him leading, Blum laughed and said, 'I won't take anything away from that either.”

What the polling does show, Blum said, is the impact of millions of dollars of attack ads over the past 20 months from Finkenauer and groups supporting her.

Despite Finkenauer's lead in this poll, Blum has confidence. Polls in his previous races for the seat also showed him trailing Democratic opponents - but not by double digits.

'I wasn't supposed to win in 2014. I wasn't supposed to win in 2016. This is a Democratic district,” he said. 'At this point in time in those races, I was never ahead in the polls. I won against all odds.”

By Thursday night, the New York Times poll had him trailing by 15 points - 52 percent to 37 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

After two days of polling - 17,716 calls and 502 responses - the poll results show 1st District voters giving President Donald Trump a 39/55 percent approval/disapproval rating and favoring Democratic control of the House by a 49 to 40 percent margin.

Majorities support the North American Free Trade Agreement and oppose Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum. A plurality favor Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court and the northeast Iowans were evenly divided - 46 to 46 percent - on the GOP tax cuts.

Blum doesn't think the poll is a harbinger of a Democratic blue wave.

'I think that has been exaggerated somewhat,” he said. 'The left is energized. But the right's energized as well. The right doesn't tend to go out and do protest. I personally believe that on Election Day the silent majority will do its job by showing up and voting.”

Finkenauer said the enthusiasm among her supporters is 'palpable,” but doesn't want to predict a wave election.

'I'm not from the coast so I don't know anything about waves,” she said. 'But there's something happening. People are excited and paying attention. People are ready for some change.”

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