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2-Minute Drill: Iowa State Cyclones vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Nov. 25, 2016 7:00 am
Breaking down the regular-season finale between Iowa State (3-8, 2-6) and No. 18 West Virginia (8-2, 5-2). Kickoff is 2:30 p.m. at Jack Trice Stadium (FS1).
ISU RUSH OFFENSE VS. WVU RUSH DEFENSE
On Monday, Matt Campbell called quarterback Joel Lanning the best runner on the team. It's hard to argue after a career performance against Texas Tech. Lanning had 17 carries for 171 yards and five touchdowns, leading the way for Iowa State's 272 total rushing yards.
Texas Tech, not a typically good defensive team, stacked eight in the box at times, but Lanning was still able to spring loose off the tackles. Freshmen David Montgomery and Kene Nwangwu and sophomore Mike Warren give Iowa State true options in the backfield, with three players potentially ending the season with 500 or more yards rushing.
Read More: Lanning puts transfer rumors to rest
West Virginia has been one of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 this season, and has held opponents to 153.6 rushing yards per Big 12 game — second best in the conference. The Mountaineers front seven will be a much different test than the one the Cyclones saw last week.
Advantage: West Virginia
ISU PASS OFFENSE VS. WVU PASS DEFENSE
Quarterback Jacob Park has appeared to solidify himself as the starter for now and into next year, and has strung together his best four games of the season over the last several weeks. In that time, he's 69-for-108 passing for 951 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. After redshirting at Georgia in 2014 and sitting out in junior college last year, Park has, what Coach Matt Campbell said, been able to take what the defense has given him. In doing that, he's been able to spread out the defense and make way for Joel Lanning and others' running ability.
Having Allen Lazard — who has 68 catches, 915 yards and seven touchdowns this season — on the outside doesn't hurt either. Dondre Daley, Deshaunte Jones and Trever Ryen also give Park some capable options.
Players preview the season-finale vs. West Virginia. November 22, 2016
Players preview the season-finale vs. West Virginia. #CyclONEnation pic.twitter.com/prUByKTJS9
— Cyclone Football (@CycloneFB)
The Mountaineers have allowed 244.3 passing yards in conference play. Rasul Douglas has six interceptions and three pass breakups and leads a unit that holds opposing quarterbacks to a 59.3 percent completion rate in conference games.
Advantage: Push
WVU RUSH OFFENSE VS. ISU RUSH DEFENSE
Justin Crawford has shown he was one of the best running backs in the Big 12. And that was before he had 24 carries and 331 yards in a loss to Oklahoma. He has 930 yards this season with an average carry of 7.6 yards.
Justin Crawford has been named the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week AND the Big 12 Newcomer of the Week.November 21, 2016
Justin Crawford has been named the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week AND the Big 12 Newcomer of the Week.https://t.co/2nWSjQ4c3e pic.twitter.com/q9Svx1CZOM
— WVU Football (@WVUfootball)
STORY:
Iowa State's low point in rush defense was when it allowed 469 yards in a three-point loss to Baylor, but has since tightened up. Texas Tech isn't a rush-first offense, but was held to 84 yards on the ground.
Linebacker Willie Harvey is the ninth-leading tackler in the Big 12, but the Cyclones haven't seen a running back of Crawford's caliber since Texas' D'Onta Foreman ran for 136 yards on Oct. 15 in the Cyclones' 27-6 loss.
Advantage: West Virginia
WVU PASS OFFENSE VS. ISU PASS DEFENSE
Quarterback Skyler Howard is a veteran and has a 60-percent completion rate, but has 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions in conference play. Howard is fourth in the league with 254.1 passing yards per game. Daikiel Shorts is the top receiver, and has 53 catches for 777 yards and four touchdowns.
The strength of Iowa State's defense has been with its secondary all season, with its three turnovers against Texas Tech coming from the back end. Safety Kamari Cotton-Moya was named co-Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week on Monday after his forced fumble and recovery and 48-yard pick-six against the Red Raiders.
Jomal Wiltz and Brian Peavy are top-10 players in passes defended among Big 12 schools with Evrett Edwards coming off a game with six tackles and an interception.
Advantage: Push
SPECIAL TEAMS
ESPN statistics rank Iowa State as the No. 24 special teams efficiency unit in FBS. West Virginia checks in at No. 113, but has shown some effectiveness at times.
The Mountaineers average 23.1 yards per return (second), but are second-to-last among Big 12 teams in punt return average and last in kickoff coverage. Iowa State is fourth, seventh and eighth in those same categories.
WVU kicker Mike Molina and ISU kicker Cole Netten are fourth and fifth, respectively, in field goals this season. Molina is hitting 69.2 percent while Netten is kicking 90.9 percent on the season.
Advantage: Push
INTANGIBLES
1. The series — West Virginia leads the all-time series with Iowa State, 3-1. The two had never met before the Mountaineers joined the Big 12. West Virginia has won both meetings in Ames, with Iowa State's only win coming in Morgantown in 2013, 52-44 in triple overtime.
2. Ranked opponents — West Virginia enters Saturday ranked No. 18. Iowa State has lost its last 19 games against ranked opponents, and is 0-3 this year. The Cyclones' last home win against a ranked team was Nov. 18, 2011 when they beat No. 2 Oklahoma State in double overtime.
3. Senior Day — Iowa State has 22 players going through Senior Day festivities Saturday. Since 2000, the Cyclones are 8-8 in Senior Day games.
3 & OUT
1. Turnovers — Iowa State has committed just 12 turnovers this season, which is second fewest in the Big 12 and ranks 14th nationally. Six of those 12 giveaways were in three nonconference games. West Virginia is minus-3 for turnovers in conference play.
2. Third-down conversions — Iowa State and West Virginia are side-by-side in conference play in third-down conversions at fourth (47.2 percent) and fifth (45.5 percent), respectively. The Mountaineers have the edge on third-down defense at 41.6 percent while the Cyclones are 48.8 percent.
3. The line — Iowa State's record is 3-8, but the Cyclones are 7-4 against the spread, according to VegasInsider.com and have covered six Big 12 games. West Virginia is a seven-point favorite Saturday.
ISU WILL WIN IF ... It stops West Virginia's persistent run game and capitalizes with touchdowns in the red zone.
WVU WILL WIN IF ... It can control the clock through the rushing attack and find ways to pressure ISU quarterbacks.
PREDICTION: West Virginia 31, Iowa State 28