Spring flood risks remain low, despite Friday’s storm

Similar to its prediction made earlier this month, the Nation Weather Service’s Quad Cities bureau is anticipating below normal spring flood risks.

Tim Gross, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said the risk for severe flooding on the Mississippi River this spring is currently 5 to 10 percent.

This is down about 10 percent from the Service’s first spring flood outlook on Feb. 13.

The National Weather Service hosts a webinar series each spring that walks Iowans through flood predictions for the upcoming season.

The Iowa tributaries that feed into the Mississippi River have a “near to below normal” chance of flooding.

“The main factor for any spring flooding in our area will be the amount and timing of precipitation this spring,” said Gross, who works in the Quad Cities bureau of the National Weather Service.

The Service’s third and final spring flooding outlook webinar on Thursday comes as parts of Iowa are expected to be hit with storms that could be severe Friday evening.

As of Thursday, the NWS was predicting that the southeastern part of the state could see “moderate” weather risks, with wind gusts up to 60 mph.

However, Gross said Friday’s storm shouldn’t have too much of an effect on the current flood prediction because precipitation likely will be absorbed through soil and rivers due to the state’s lingering drought conditions.

“Given the current drought, near to below normal stream flow, there's still a lot of room in the streams to receive that rainfall in there to prevent flooding, which is a good thing,” Gross said.

Although Iowa still has some level of drought spanning across much of the state, overall “moderate drought” levels have decreased.

Since last week, moderate drought conditions statewide have declined by about 16 percent. A pocket of severe drought still is lingering in the state but only in parts of Sioux, Plymouth and Woodbury counties in northwest Iowa, making up 1.3 percent.

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On top of that, Gross said the ground is starting to defrost throughout the region, with the first three to six inches of soil thawing.

This will “allow the moisture to be infiltrated into the soil, thus reducing the runoff into the river,” Gross said.

Going forward

Larry Weber, interim director for the Iowa Flood Center, said the Center does not have concerns about flooding around the state this spring.

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“The outlook for the near-term and mid-term (future) is that we're going into the spring with very good conditions,” Weber said. “Although, we remain flood observant and flood aware that if we end up in a week of repetitive rainfall over a four- or five-day period, that can change fairly quickly.”

Weber said the Center’s flood and weather information and advisories are “very aligned” with the National Weather Service, adding that the Service’s predictions are “the gold standard.”

“We remain hopeful and optimistic that things are in a fairly stable condition for us,” Weber said.

He said that most of the Center’s work — which is housed in the University of Iowa — is to take the information provided by the NWS and give Iowans more information about flood areas throughout the state.

But as the state still is moving into what has been historically its flood season, Weber is encouraging Iowans to keep updated on weather events. They can do that through the Center, the National Weather Service and the U.S. Geological Survey, which has a local chapter at UI as well.

“At the end of the day, it is every Iowan’s personal responsibility to familiarize themselves with our flood information system so that when a flood may be imminent, they know how to get the most relevant information,” Weber said.

Olivia Cohen covers energy and environment for The Gazette and is a corps member with Report for America, a national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-covered issues.

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Comments: olivia.cohen@thegazette.com