Your energy needs should be met this winter, MISO says

As fall slowly slips into winter, the energy industry once again is mapping the expected energy demands and generation capacity during the season.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, or MISO, manages Iowa’s energy on the power grid along with that of 14 other states and a Canadian province. It proactively projects how much energy will be available during each summer and winter, when consumers need it for heating and cooling needs.

Previous reliability assessments — and the following summers and winters — have kept grid operators on their toes as extreme weather events ripple across the country.

Record-breaking heat waves in summer 2022 strained the power grid, putting MISO at a “high risk” of energy emergencies.

By winter 2022, MISO was projected to meet energy demands under normal conditions. But “normal” conditions flew out the window as Winter Storm Elliott barreled in, impacting the power grid and its supporting natural gas infrastructure in the eastern United States between Dec. 21 and 26, 2022.

Eighteen percent of the anticipated energy resources were unavailable. There were thousands of unplanned outages in energy generation, including 23 gigawatts of outages of natural gas generation in MISO’s jurisdiction. MISO declared emergency procedures on Dec. 23; ultimately, there were no interruptions for customers.

The event marked the fifth time in the past 11 years that cold weather jeopardized the nation’s power grid reliability. The winter before, more than 4.5 million people in Texas lost power during Winter Storm Uri. At least 246 people died.

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What’s happened since

MISO should be able to handle energy demands this winter, the operator reported.

Winter demand could surpass 106 gigawatts. There should be 121 gigawatts of energy supply available under normal conditions.

Last winter, MISO projected winter energy demands at about 102 gigawatts, with 113 gigawatts of available supply under normal conditions. The all-time winter record for power demand is 109 gigawatts on Jan. 6, 2017.

“We anticipate having enough resources to manage normal conditions, but there is always the potential for an extreme weather event to strain the grid,” said Jessica Lucas, MISO’s executive director of system operations, in an October news release.

For the first time in four years, the effects of El Niño will be sweeping across the United States going into winter. The weather phenomenon arises when weak winds push warmer waters toward the West Coast, which moves the Pacific jet stream south. As a result, the northern United States may be dryer and warmer than usual, and the southern United States may be wetter than usual.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across Iowa this winter. The state has equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation. Colder outbreaks may not last as long during El Niño — but that doesn’t mean there aren’t chances for winter storms, said meteorologist Tom Philip of the National Weather Service Quad Cities Bureau.

Should another storm blast through the region this winter, MISO has fortified its processes to better protect its energy distribution.

For example, the grid operator said it has adjusted its forecast modeling after Winter Storm Elliott to better prepare for incoming weather events. It’s also working on increasing coordination between stakeholders, adding support measures and improving operator readiness to help optimize the grid’s performance in such weather events.

Brittney J. Miller is the Energy & Environment Reporter for The Gazette and a corps member with Report for America, a national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-covered issues.

Comments: (319) 398-8370; brittney.miller@thegazette.com