Pace of Iowa City enrollment growth could cause future problems

IOWA CITY — A slowdown in the growth of Iowa City schools this year will not lead to any immediate changes for the district, Superintendent Stephen Murley said Wednesday.

But the shift could cause problems next year, when Iowa City enrollment is projected to grow faster than at any point in the next nine years.

Iowa City schools have 156 more students this year than last year, according to an Oct. 1 head count released this week. The district's 2014-15 enrollment of 13,050 is about 200 students lower than the 13,253 forecast in a November 2013 report commissioned by the district, which projected annual increases of 300 to 450 students through 2023-24.

The district slightly exceeded projected enrollment in 2013-14.

Because each year's per-pupil state funding allocation is based on the previous year's enrollment numbers, Murley said, the district often finds itself a year behind in staffing and other needs.

'For us as a growing district, that's always a problem,' Murley said. 'We have more students in our district than the state is paying us for.'

This year's slower-than-projected growth, coupled with a large projected growth next year, could cause difficulties.

Murley said the district regularly petitions the state Department of Education's school budget review committee for more funding to alleviate such shortfalls, but that aid is not guaranteed. And the district doesn't find out whether it receives extra help until the start of a school year — well after it has planned its budget.

'The hard part about it is, you don't have those dollars going in,' he said. 'You don't hire those teachers in the spring, not knowing if you'll get those dollars in the fall.'

The district has used that funding to hire staff mid-year, Murley added.

DeJong-Richter, which conducted two enrollment projections last year for the district, will do another one this spring, Murley said.

The district hopes the new estimates will be more accurate, he said, because they will include more accurate birth rate data provided by the state. Murley said earlier projections could have been thrown off because many children born at Iowa City hospitals do not live in Iowa City or go on to attend Iowa City schools.

While slower-than-expected growth could have long-term implications for the district's budget, Murley said, immediate changes are unlikely. The district's master facilities plan — including four new schools over the next several years — will remain unchanged, Murley said.

'We build our budget based on trend lines, and we're pretty conservative in projecting revenue,' he said. 'We're within that tolerance level that our budget office builds in when they do that planning.'