Keys to victory: Cyclone’s look to end three-game skid against the Sun Devils

AMES — Injuries and losses have piled up for the Iowa State and Arizona State football teams.

Consequently, the luster has been removed from the matchup Saturday between the Cyclones (5-3, 2-3) and Sun Devils (5-3, 3-2). This was circled in the preseason as one of the top conference games of the year.

ISU retains no hopes of returning to the league title game, but Arizona State clings to long-shot chances of getting back to Arlington, Texas. So the stakes aren’t small, but they have certainly been downgraded in a matter of a few weeks.

Keys to Victory

Pile on the pressure

Iowa State struck for two sacks in last week’s 41-27 home loss to BYU, but as usual this season, there’s a “bad news” element to this relatively positive development.

Both of those sacks came from senior linebacker Will McLaughlin, who’s battled injuries his entire career, and is listed as questionable this week. So who will have a chance to shine while rushing the quarterback this week? Stay tuned, but it’s likely that defensive coordinator Jon Heacock will need to continue blitzing and using his linebackers to get pressure on Arizona State backup-turned-starting quarterback Jeff Sims, who is expected to replace injured star Sam Leavitt.

The Cyclones rank 13th in the Big 12 in sacks with 10, but Arizona State’s porous offensive front is highly exploitable. The Sun Devils have allowed 25 sacks — the most among any conference team. Sims himself has been sacked six times while completing just 24 of 49 passes (49 percent) for one touchdown. He’s thrown 32 career touchdown passes to 29 interceptions — and has been sacked 64 times in his five-plus seasons of college football.

Ground and pound

ISU is ranked a middling ninth in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game at 166.4, but there’s been a marked uptick in production during its current three-game losing streak.

The Cyclones’ backfield duo of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama have helped their team average 192 yards on the ground in that span, including a robust 215-yard effort when removing 31 yards lost on sacks in last week’s setback to BYU. That’s highly significant — and indicative of strong offensive line play — because the Cougars rank fifth in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per game at 129.4.

ISU’s aforementioned rushing average of 166.4 yards per game also is its highest since Breece Hall powered the backfield in 2020, so strength will meet strength on Saturday as Arizona State’s rushing defense ranks third in the league (119.9).

Hansen and Sama have furnished the Cyclones with a 150-plus rushing yard performance in the past two games, and Hansen’s coming off a career-high 152-yard effort that included two touchdowns. Sama was listed as questionable on ISU’s initial conference-mandated injury report.

Win on third (and fourth) down

The Cyclones’ well-documented struggles in the red zone haven’t hinged on third down success nor failure. ISU’s converted on 41.8 percent of its third down chances, which ranks a solid sixth in the Big 12.

The Cyclones also are tied for fifth in fourth down conversion rate at 62.5 percent — but that number’s dropped in recent weeks. Arizona State, meanwhile, ranks 12th in opponent’s third down conversion rate (37 percent), and seventh in fourth down conversions (54.6 percent).

Houston converted on nearly 50 percent (7 of 15) of its third downs in last Saturday’s 24-16 win over the Sun Devils in Tempe, so ISU should be able to move the chains well on third down in Saturday’s rematch of last season’s Big 12 championship game.

Prediction

The Sun Devils are even more injured than the Cyclones — and that’s saying something since ISU’s top two cornerbacks, Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper, are out for the season.

Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt gave the Cyclones fits in last season’s Big 12 title game, but he can't play on Saturday, which puts twice-transferred play caller Jeff Sims behind center. He’s really good as a runner but spotty as a passer, so it will be interesting to see how ISU defensive coordinator Jon Heacock plans to attack him.

Rocco Becht and the Cyclones’ offense tips the scales in this one.

Iowa State 28, Arizona State 20