John Steppe’s AP ballot after conference championships: Why Alabama is ahead of SMU

IOWA CITY — Many of the 12 spots in the College Football Playoff field have little ambiguity ahead of Sunday’s selection show.

Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, Arizona State and Clemson are the top-five conference champions. All signs point toward Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana getting at-large bids as well.

But as for the last at-large bid, should it be two-loss SMU from the ACC or three-loss Alabama from the SEC? The only opinions that really matter at this point are on the CFP selection committee. That being said, I have Alabama ahead of SMU on my ballot for this week’s AP Poll.

SMU does not have a bad loss on its resume, losing by three points to BYU and Clemson. But Alabama’s quality of wins were ultimately the differentiator on my ballot.

Alabama’s best win is against Georgia — the 2024 SEC champion. (The Crimson Tide’s wins over now-ranked South Carolina and Missouri certainly are respectable as well.) SMU’s best win, on the other hand, is arguably against Louisville — a team that I have been in the minority for ranking at all in recent weeks.

Elsewhere on my ballot, I gave a slight preference to one-loss Notre Dame over two-loss Texas. The Fighting Irish have four ranked wins, including a 35-point rout of Army a few weeks ago, but the Longhorns’ lack of bad losses made them a compelling option at that spot as well.

Ohio State is one spot ahead of Penn State at No. 5 on my ballot. The Buckeyes’ head-to-head win over Penn State makes a difference, and their 23-point win against Indiana carries a lot of weight.

Iowa State fell from No. 16 to No. 20 on my ballot, and UNLV fell from No. 19 to No. 24. I am hesitant to punish teams too much for playing in a conference championship game; however, the Cyclones’ 26-point loss to Arizona State and UNLV’s 21-7 loss to Boise State were rather uninspiring.

Here is my full ballot:

John Steppe’s post-conference-championship AP ballot:

Comments: john.steppe@thegazette.com

Sign up for our curated Iowa Hawkeyes athletics newsletter at thegazette.com/hawks.