Iowa State vs. Memphis: 3 keys and a score prediction for 2023 Liberty Bowl

MEMPHIS — Iowa State football coach Matt Campbell could become the first head coach in Cyclone history to guide the team to four seasons featuring eight or more wins.

That number likely matters little to him, but notching ISU’s first bowl win since beating Oregon in the 2021 Fiesta Bowl would provide the program with a big boost heading into the offseason.

The Cyclones are one of the youngest teams in the Big 12 and could return 20 starters next season, so long-term optimism would climb even higher if they emerge victorious.

Still, there’s no real downside to losing this game. Campbell and his staff addressed pressing concerns last offseason and have proved they can rebound from a poor season quickly.

Iowa State is 5-1 in games in which it scores first and 6-0 when leading at halftime, so finding success early is critical to the team’s hopes for a positive outcome.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Pressure and cover

Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan can pick a defense apart when he’s given time, so Iowa State must get into the backfield early and often to force him to make uncharacteristic mistakes.

The Tigers gave up a season-high three sacks in two of their three losses and the Cyclones have recorded at least five tackles for loss in each of their past five games.

Taking Henigan down a time or two should allow ISU’s secondary to adjust to the absence of All-America cornerback T.J. Tampa, who’s sitting out to protect his health in advance of the NFL Draft.

The good news for the Cyclones: Skilled safety Jeremiah Cooper is 100 percent healthy after battling through an injury late in the season. He’s excellent both on coverage and against the run — and junior cornerback Myles Purchase has shined late in the season.

2. Unleash Abu Sama

Abu Sama’s 16-rush, 276-yard performance in the snow-swept, 42-35, win over Kansas State provided further evidence that he’s a big play waiting to happen anytime he’s handed the football.

So the Cyclones’ offensive line needs to be well-connected in order to give Sama enough room to work. Memphis ranks 100th nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (168.2) so holes should open up consistently.

If that happens, expect Sama to eclipse the 100-yard mark on the ground for the second time in the past three games.

3. Stay special

Senior kicker Chase Contreraz has come through in pressure-filled situations with regularity this season — and both of his missed field goal attempts in Big 12 play spanned greater than 40 yards.

Overall, the transfer from Nebraska is 19 of 24 on field goal tries and has earned the full trust of Campbell and his teammates.

Couple his accuracy with kickoff specialist Keegan Shackford’s strong leg and punter Tyler Perkins’ ability to pin foes deep in their territory and it’s easy to see how special teams play has become a strength after being a liability in recent seasons.

Perkins is averaging 44.3 yards per punt, which if maintained, would set a single-season program record.

Liberty Bowl prediction

The Cyclones are now double-digit favorites — and that’s after it became clear Tampa would sit out.

Not sure what to make of that, but the Tigers lost more to opt-outs and the transfer portal and will have a hard time thriving against Jon Heacock’s defense.

Iowa State 31, Memphis 24