Iowa State look to maintain conference front-runner

AMES — The Big 12 needs a standard-bearer after defending champion Arizona State stumbled last week at Mississippi State, and the league’s produced wildly mixed results against fellow Power Four teams early in the season.

Iowa State is supposed to win this game big and needs to do so to maintain its course as conference front-runner through the first third of the season. Big 12 play beckons on the other side of a bye week as does what’s almost certain to be another wild ride as contenders rise and fall on the long journey toward Jerry World.

3 KEYS TO VICTORY

1. Play bully ball

The Cyclones boast superior talent and depth in the trenches against the Red Wolves, which should allow them to dictate the terms of this game even if the on-field temperature climbs into triple-digits.

Neither team has compiled gaudy numbers on the ground. ISU ranks 81st in rushing yards per game (152.3) and Arkansas State ranks 83rd (150.0), but the potential return of starting guard Trevor Buhr — even if limited after a long bout with illness — should allow the Cyclones’ backs to roam free most of the day.

ISU’s defense also has been solid against the run, allowing an average of 108 yards per game. That should make it tough sledding for a Red Wolves’ running attack that lost lead back Ja’Quez Cross to a season-ending ACL injury about 10 days ago.

So expect dual-threat quarterback Jaylen Raynor to use his legs in creative ways — a gambit the Cyclones countered completely in last season’s 52-7 win in Ames.

2. Tighten focus

ISU head coach Matt Campbell has made toughness — both physical and mental — the key word for his team in this first four-game pod of the regular season for good reason.

Prioritizing the grit-based metric has allowed the Cyclones to successfully navigate through an overseas trip and their two biggest rivalry games to be 3-0 entering this road trip to Jonesboro. Campbell stressed the importance of toughness again this week, but with a premium placed in its application to precision and details — the little things that make his program go.

So if ISU commits more than a handful of minor penalties, or makes poor decisions in key moments, that’s because not enough players heeded Campbell’s warnings about “ego and entitlement” being a potential stumbling block. But the leadership at the top on both sides of the ball — from quarterback Rocco Becht to cornerback Jontez Williams — has been built to avoid that trap.

3. Plumb the depths

The Cyclones are a three-touchdown favorite for a reason and if they can establish a strong offensive rhythm early, this could become a name-the-score type of game.

If the defense can frustrate and neutralize Raynor for the second straight meeting, the likelihood of that happening greatly increases. So expect ISU to be aggressive early in hopes of alleviating stress late.

Rest for some banged up starters would be welcomed — as would reps for young safeties and others in advance of the first of three bye weeks. So while the Cyclones are always preparing to play games that remain tense well into the fourth quarter, they’ll try to prevent that from happening by starting fast on both sides of the ball.

A young and revamped Red Wolves team is not built to withstand that — as Arkansas proved last week by scoring touchdowns on four straight first-quarter possessions en route to a 56-14 win.

PREDICTION

This game feels like a lose-lose scenario for the No. 14 Cyclones, who opened as 20.5-point favorites in their first road game against a non-Power Four program since suffering the shocking 10-7 loss at Ohio in 2023.

If ISU wins big, it’s simply meeting Vegas oddsmakers’ expectations. If the Cyclones struggle at times, some will question whether they’re truly a contender again for a Big 12 title. And if they lose — that’s frankly unthinkable.

All that said, ISU is significantly better on both sides of the ball, and features the depth to make any early struggles a blip on the radar after 60 minutes of game time have expired. Expect the Cyclones to be able to rack up yards and points almost at will offensively, while the defense makes it impossible for Arkansas State to keep up.

Iowa State 38, Arkansas State 9