A closer look at Saturday’s Iowa State-Kansas State football game

DUBLIN, Ireland — This is a bit of a head-scratcher.

In one sense, this game is vitally important for both teams if they hope to remain strong contenders for a conference title. In another, it’s “Week 0” and last season’s Big 12 championship chase remained wide open until the final week of the regular season.

One thing is certain: The winning team will enjoy a major leg up in what will undoubtedly be a topsy-turvy title race. This also is a big rivalry game on a singular stage that will be broadcast on ESPN. The Cyclones and Wildcats will stand alone on the mothership, commanding all the college football eyeballs in the only game in town (er, in Ireland).

So in yet another sense, winning this game will have a positive PR effect, though losing it won’t be terribly damaging.

3 KEYS TO VICTORY

1. Encircle Edwards

Kansas State’s now-No. 1 former transfer tailback, Dylan Edwards, eased any fears Wildcat fans may have had about a post-DJ Giddens world by rushing for 196 yards and two touchdowns in a Rate Bowl win over Rutgers.

The native Kansas can break off a massive run at any time, so Iowa State’s front seven will have to communicate well if it hopes to slow him down. Edwards averaged 7.0 yards per carry as Giddens’ primary backup last season and appears poised to be Kansas State’s latest in a long line of stars at the position.

The Cyclones’ main disrupter up front, Domonique Orange, must cleave through the interior of the Wildcats’ offensive line, forcing Edwards to try to run throw small holes or take a chance at bouncing outside. That’s where the return of ISU linebacker Caleb Bacon may come in, as he’s athletic enough to help off the edge as both a run stopper and a pass rusher.

2. O-line must shine after reshuffle

The Cyclones suffered a significant pre-game blow when it was announced late Wednesday (per new Big 12 injury report rules) that guard Trevor Buhr will be out for Saturday’s game.

Fortunately for ISU, Dylan Barrett, Brendan Black and Jim Bonifas — the three players who battled for the center job all fall camp — have significant experience at guard, so could slide over until Buhr heals. But however the Cyclones’ offensive line is configured, it must find a way to push a strong Kansas State front seven onto its heals to establish a running game.

ISU was able to do that in last season’s 29-21 win over the Wildcats, as an Abu Sama-led rushing attack racked up 187 yards on the ground. The Cyclones’ revamped offensive front must help open similar-sized holes on Saturday or it could be a long day at Aviva Stadium.

3. Give Rocco time

Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht completed just 13 of his 35 passes in last season’s win over the Wildcats, but he did account for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) while not turning the ball over.

He’ll need to be more accurate with a mostly new stable of primary receivers on Saturday, and one area the offensive line’s excelled in recent years is pass protection. If Becht has time to go through all of his progressions, he could have a big day — particularly if tight ends such as Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle are heavily involved.

But if the Wildcats are able to drop Becht in the backfield more than a time or two, he may be goaded into making costly mistakes, which would greatly diminish the Cyclones’ hopes of leaving Dublin with a win.

PREDICTION

The Cyclone have traditionally started slow under head coach Matt Campbell — and even though they set a program record by starting 7-0 last season, the season opener against North Dakota was a slog at times.

That can’t happen against a Kansas State team replete with playmakers on both sides of the ball. The Wildcats ranked 11th nationally in rushing offense last season and Edwards should be ready to be DJ Giddens-like after the latter moved on to the NFL.

All games are won in the trenches — and that’s especially true early in the season. ISU had success running the ball in last season’s win over the Wildcats. If the same holds true on Saturday, expect the Cyclones to prevail in a nail-biter.

Iowa State 24, Kansas State 21