3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State vs. Arkansas State: Cyclones should be sharp in nonconference finale

AMES — So what’s at stake Saturday when Arkansas State visits Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium?

Quite a bit, actually.

The Cyclones’ schedule is backloaded and suffering a loss when favored by three touchdowns in the nonconference finale would be a significant blow to the psyche — as well as any playoff hopes ISU nurtures.

ISU is better than Arkansas State in all three phases and proving that should be merely a matter of course. The Red Wolves have some talent, particularly at skill positions, but so do the Cyclones, and that should be made abundantly clear all day.

The Big 12 is wide open this season and ISU will be favored in its first two league games at Houston and against Baylor at home. Winning this game, as expected, could portend a 5-0 start entering a road trip to always-dangerous but struggling West Virginia.

If the Cyclones truly are Big 12 championship contenders, they’ll be sharp on Saturday in advance of that nine-game conference slate.

Here are three keys to the game for ISU.

1. Decimate the box

Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht’s penchant for making big plays in the passing game won’t stop the Red Wolves from stacking the box to stop the run.

Why? It’s important for Arkansas State to shore up its porous rushing defense, which has been allowing opposing running backs to average 6.47 yards per carry. The Red Wolves also can crowd the line of scrimmage in order to blitz frequently in passing situations — a gambit that hasn’t worked against Becht very often.

But will it allow Arkansas State to clamp down on ISU’s tailbacks? It better not from a Cyclones perspective. Abu Sama should be able to produce his first 100-yard game of the season, and backups Carson Hansen and Jaylon Jackson could provide some backfield fireworks, as well.

2. D-Up at the line

ISU’s defense allowed star Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to amass four rushes spanning 20 or more yards two weeks ago in Iowa City.

In the season-opener against North Dakota, the Cyclones couldn’t get off the field during a 12-minute, 24-second drive in the second quarter that included several third-down conversions via rushes.

So it will be interesting to see what adjustments have been made in the bye week to return ISU’s rushing defense to its usual dominant status. The Cyclones rank 113th in rushing defense, allowing 189 yards per game. That’s a far cry from the standard veteran defensive coordinator Jon Heacock has set — and ISU has the personnel up front to be much better in this area.

Arkansas State, meanwhile, ranks 104th nationally in rushing offense with a meager 113 yards per game, so if it’s able to get going, that should set off alarm bells for the Cyclones.

3. Go deep (on the depth chart)

There’s a good reason ISU is favored by 21 or more points (depending on the sportsbook) in this game. Oddsmakers expect the Cyclones to breeze past the Red Wolves — and if their forecast proves accurate, there should be plenty of snaps available to backups, third-stringers and even true freshmen likely to redshirt while enjoying their four-game playing window.

Getting non-starters significant game reps will be important in both the short-term and long-term. ISU still needs a true No. 3 option in the passing game to emerge and also needs to continue to delineate roles at linebacker and on the offensive line.

Two injured O-linemen — Jalen Travis and Deylin Hasert — should be available for the first time on Saturday, and integrating them into that rotation will be vitally important for the Cyclones' hopes in Big 12 play and beyond.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. Arkansas State

The Red Wolves allow a whopping 233 rushing yards per game, so Abu Sama and company should enjoy ample running room to set the tone offensively.

Sprinkle in some big passing plays from quarterback Rocco Becht and his coterie of pass catchers and the Cyclones will win comfortably, but might not cover the Vegas line of 22 or so points.

Iowa State 35, Arkansas State 14

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com