3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football vs. UCF (Oct. 19, 2024)

AMES — Iowa State (6-0, 3-0) has become almost the prohibitive favorite to win the Big 12 football title, which means the pressure amps up each week as every opponent seeks to knock it off course.

So far, ISU’s been able to overcome somewhat slow starts in most of its games, and five of its six wins have come by double digits.

UCF (3-3, 1-2) should rely heavily on its powerful running game in hopes of gobbling up the clock and shortening the game. But the Cyclones have proved they can thwart that strategy by forcing turnovers in critical moments and responding with scoring drives of both the quick-strike and grinding varieties.

ISU truly believes it can win its first outright major conference championship in school history and has backed up that conviction by excelling in head coach Matt Campbell’s fabled “margins.”

A win at 6:30 p.m. Saturday (FS1) matches the best start in program history (7-0, in 1938).

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. No give, all take

What do some of the most surprising teams in college football this season have in common? Most excel at ball security.

For instance: The 6-0 Cyclones and 6-0 Indiana each have lost just four turnovers this season, which is tied for 11th nationally. Unbeaten Army has turned the ball over once and Alabama-slaying Vanderbilt has coughed up just two turnovers.

But ISU separates itself from most of those teams by collecting a slew of takeaways. The Cyclones have turned opponents over 13 times — with 10 interceptions. They are tied for fourth among FBS teams with a plus-9 turnover margin this season. UCF, meanwhile, is tied for 95th in that statistical category, at minus-3.

If those trends continue, it could be a long night for the foundering Knights.

2. Cut the line

UCF ranks among the top four nationally in rushing offense (fourth, 268 yards per game) and rushing defense (12th, 91.2 yards allowed per game), so controlling the line of scrimmage has been a team strength — with a couple of caveats.

The Knights are tied for 123rd in quarterback sacks with five and tied for 115th in sacks allowed (3.0 per game). Those are alarmingly low and high numbers, respectively, the Cyclones should be able to exploit on both sides of the ball.

ISU is tied for 10th nationally in fewest sacks allowed (0.83 per game), but has yet to cause much commotion in the backfield defensively, totaling just 1.5 sacks per game, which is tied for 106th nationally. But the Cyclones’ quarterback takedowns have come at critical junctures — and expect that tendency to remain prevalent against UCF and its (likely) new starting quarterback Jacurri Brown.

3. Go deep in more ways than one

ISU’s skilled senior wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are on track to post twin 1,000-yard receiving seasons, which is something no such tandem in school history has ever done.

Higgins ranks among the top-10 receivers nationally in catches spanning 10 or more yards, and Noel is tied for second in receptions of 40-plus yards with six. Both are elite route runners and neither has dropped a pass this season, so quarterback Rocco Becht can count on them in every situation.

A consistent No. 3 option must emerge, however, and big-play tight end Ben Brahmer is most likely to fulfill that need. Talented transfer Eli Green could emerge as the Cyclones’ third most productive receiver and he caught two key passes in last week’s win at West Virginia. Walk-on Carson Brown has also produced some big catches this season as ISU seeks to diversify its passing game to take some heat off Higgins and Noel.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. UCF

The troubled Knights have enough top-end talent to challenge the No. 9 Cyclones as 13.5-point underdogs, but not enough to avoid a fourth consecutive loss.

Iowa State 27, UCF 17

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com