3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football vs. Texas Tech (Nov. 2, 2024)

AMES — Iowa State (7-0, 4-0) has kept winning because it refuses to look ahead.

Maintaining that singular focus on Texas Tech (5-3, 3-2) is critical to keeping that streak alive, and ISU’s players are saying all the right things in that regard.

As head coach Matt Campbell is wont to say, the margin for error remains vanishingly small for the Cyclones — even as they enter November with an unblemished record for the first time in the modern era.

ISU’s been excellent in the margins, especially on the turnover front, where it’s tied for seventh nationally at plus-1.29 per game. If the Red Raiders can upend that long-running trend and score an upset, the Cyclones’ hopes of reaching the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2020 could take a severe hit.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Win up front on both sides of the ball

While the No. 11 Cyclones’ running game has become more productive as the season wears on (sixth in the Big 12, 176 yards per game), the rushing defense has become more porous.

ISU gave up 354 rushing yards in its 38-35 win over UCF on Oct. 19, and the Red Raiders certainly took note of that and devised a game plan to achieve similar success on the ground. They certainly have the back to do it in Tahj Brooks, who has rushed for 109 yards or more in each game this season.

The Cyclones rushing defense ranks an unusual 15th in the Big 12 (allowing 170.3 yards per game) — an outlier that doesn’t obscure how well that unit has played overall. ISU’s defense ranks ninth nationally in points allowed per game (14.4), and second in passing yards allowed (133.7 per game). So the Cyclones still field a top-20 total defense in the country, but keeping Texas Tech below 200 rushing yards will go a long way toward ensuring a first 8-0 start in program history.

2. Be creative with pressure

Early this week, it looked like four-star true freshman quarterback Will Hammond was poised to make his first career start against ISU, but longtime Red Raiders starter Behren Morton practiced this week and could very well start one week after sustaining what appeared to be a significant shoulder injury.

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Morton, a 6-foot-2, 220-pound junior, has been far more efficient this season (17 touchdowns, three interceptions), but doesn’t possess game-changing dual-threat capabilities. He can run the ball effectively in spots, however, so the Cyclones defense — in addition to slowing down Brooks — must be disciplined and judicious when it chooses to ramp up the pressure on Texas Tech’s quarterback.

3. Strike fast, exploit gambles

Iowa State has trailed at halftime in two of its past three Big 12 wins, but second-half surges have negated those sluggish starts.

At some point, being shaky out of the gate will catch up to ISU — and the Red Raiders boast the conference’s top scoring offense at 38.1 points per game.

Texas Tech’s defense is vulnerable against the run and the pass, however, so the Cyclones’ first-year offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser will enjoy an array of options while seeking to find the perfect run/pass balance.

The Red Raiders defense has given up just two rushes spanning 50-plus yards this season, but has struggled to prevent big plays in the passing game. They’ve allowed five passes to result in gains of 70-plus yards — and no other Big 12 team has allowed more than one — so ISU quarterback Rocco Becht should be able to connect with talented receivers such as Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel early and often.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders defense is one of the worst in the country statistically speaking, but it does force plenty of turnovers.

Becht must be sharp and he should be as his team tries to avoid another slow start and get to 8-0 for the first time in program history.

Iowa State 38, Texas Tech 21