3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football vs. Baylor (Oct. 5, 2024)

AMES — All of Iowa State football’s lofty goals — including competing for a Big 12 title — remain fully in play, but a hiccup on Saturday night would temper those aspirations significantly.

Baylor has cast itself as a team that finds ways to lose close games, and ISU’s established itself as a team that can thrive in those tense situations. That trend must continue if the Cyclones hope to stay on course for what could be a historic month of November and beyond.

The Bears, despite their recent struggles, possess the playmakers on both sides of the ball to score a major upset. Simply put, the Cyclones — who seek a first conference title — can’t afford to stumble on national television (Fox) as double-digit favorites if they expect to have a chance to get to AT&T Stadium, aka “Jerry World,” for the conference championship game on Dec. 7.

Here are three keys to victory for the 16th-ranked Cyclones (4-0, 1-0 Big 12) against the Bears (2-3, 0-2).

1. Make it a grind

The Cyclones established their quick-strike offensive ability early this season, scoring four touchdowns on drives of one minute or less.

But recently, ISU’s been able to find success in the running game, which is its preferred method to pave the way for winning games. As Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said this week, the Cyclones seek to “choke you out slowly” by extending drives that limit opposing offenses’ time on the field.

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Houston’s offense ran just 47 plays last week and ISU possessed the football nearly 10 minutes more than the Cougars. That’s largely because the Cyclones rushed for more than 230 yards in its second consecutive game for the first time since 2021.

This week, they face a Bears rushing defense that’s allowing 141.2 yards per game, which ranks slightly better than Houston, so opportunities to shorten the game should be there.

2. Keep them underneath

Baylor is tied for fourth in the Big 12 with 22 passing plays that have spanned 20-plus yards, so ISU’s cornerbacks and safeties will face their biggest challenge of the season.

The Bears feature three upperclassmen — Josh Cameron, Hal Presley, Monaray Baldwin and Ashtyn Hawkins — who can stress a defense vertically at any time. Baylor’s been banged up and inconsistent in running the football, as well, which could compel quarterback Sawyer Robertson to take more deep shots.

That strategy may bear little fruit, however, as ISU leads the league in the fewest passes allowed spanning 20 or more yards with six. The Cyclones also are the only team in the Big 12 not to allow at least one 40-plus yard reception this season.

3. Diversify the pass game

It’s rare for an ISU tight end not to make a single catch in a game, but that’s precisely what happened in last week’s win at Houston.

It didn’t matter against the Cougars, but it might against Baylor. Standout sophomore Ben Brahmer has been banged up early in the season, but can serve as a key to the Cyclones’ offense when healthy. His three catches for 73 yards in the 52-7 win over Arkansas State unlocked more downfield opportunities for star senior wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and also led to a lighter box that ISU’s running backs exploited all day.

Talented transfers Eli Green and Isaiah Alston have yet to click with quarterback Rocco Becht, as has 6-foot-4 redshirt freshman speedster Beni Ngoyi, who has just two catches for 27 yards. The Bears’ secondary is good enough to blanket Noel and Higgins and hope that Becht’s other options remain quiet.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. Baylor

It’s been a wild and demoralizing two weeks for the Bears, who blew a 14-point lead in an eventual, 38-31, overtime loss at Colorado, then fell behind, 21-0, to No. 17 BYU last weekend before mounting a furious rally that fell short in a 34-28 setback.

The Cyclones, meanwhile, have routinely overcome occasional struggles by making key plays in critical moments to race to their first 4-0 start in 24 years.

So what happens Saturday night? More of the same for both teams. ISU’s defense will bow up, as usual, and a balanced offensive effort will keep the beleaguered Bears at bay.

Iowa State 31, Baylor 16

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com