3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football at Houston (Sept. 28, 2024)

HOUSTON — Iowa State is convinced it can compete for and win a Big 12 football title — and losing to a Houston team firmly entrenched in rebuilding mode would greatly diminish any such hopes.

The Cyclones carry a four-game road winning streak in conference play into this matchup and, as double-digit favorites, should be able to control the game from start to finish. They won those four straight Big 12 road games by an average of 17.8 points last season, and even though a 45-13 win at BYU somewhat skewed that number, they weren’t seriously threatened in any of those outings.

That should remain the case Saturday amid sultry 90-plus degree conditions in the Texas heat, but even if ISU loses, a clear path to the Big 12 title game remains — especially since both Kansas State and Oklahoma State lost last week. The league championship is fully up for grabs, and with Utah quarterback Cam Rising battling injuries again, the Cyclones have emerged as a second favorite to secure that title.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Iowa State needs to start fast

The No. 18 Cyclones (3-0) have completed four scoring drives that lasted less than one minute this season, so their quick-strike ability is well-established.

That trend must continue against the Cougars (1-3, 0-1), who are good enough to hang around — as they proved in a 16-12 loss at No. 21 Oklahoma — if they’re not put away early. Houston’s been outscored 52-6 in the first half in each of its three losses, which partly explains its early-season struggles.

ISU raced to a 31-0 halftime lead in last week’s 52-7 win over Arkansas State, swiftly extinguishing any hopes the Red Wolves had of notching an upset. The Cyclones won’t be able to carve up the Cougars’ solid defense that easily, but building a two-score lead early is feasible and imperative to ensuring a win.

2. Iowa State’s defense has to stay opportunistic

ISU ranks second in the Big 12 in takeaways with seven despite playing one fewer game than everyone else in the league.

The Cyclones’ secondary has been especially disruptive, collecting five interceptions — two for cornerback Darien Porter, and one each for safeties Jeremiah Cooper, Beau Freyler and Malik Verdon. Houston, meanwhile, is tied for 102nd nationally in turnover margin and has turned the ball over seven times this season.

ISU ranked 16th nationally in turnover margin last season and is currently 10th this season, so maintaining an opportunistic bent will be important against a Cougars team that boasts enough talent — particularly on defense — to make the Cyclones uncomfortable.

3. Iowa State’s offense should take shots

ISU quarterback Rocco Becht saw his six-game streak of completing at least one pass spanning 50 or more yards snapped in last week’s thrashing of Arkansas State, but his top receiving tandem of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel can break free for big plays at any time.

Houston likely will seek to control the line of scrimmage early against the Cyclones and that should leave Higgins, Noel or tight end Ben Brahmer in single coverage at times. Becht has proved to be adept at finding one of those “big three” targets downfield ever since he became the starter last season — and his trust level with that group is extremely high.

Higgins has caught a touchdown pass in five straight games and Noel has caught seven touchdown passes in the past seven games. Add in transfers Eli Green and Isaiah Alston, along with rangy speedster Beni Ngoyi, and the Cougars’ secondary should be stretched thin and highly vulnerable on short passes and deep routes alike.

Prediction for Iowa State at Houston

Houston’s first-year head coach Willie Fritz — as Iowa State offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser noted this week — “has won everywhere,” so he’ll likely rebuild the Cougars’ program into a conference title contender.

The Cougars certainly are a far cry from that right now, and took a massive step back in last week’s 34-0 loss at Cincinnati. But they do have athletes and an above-average defense that could make it tough on the Cyclones early.

I still expect ISU to cover with a balanced offensive performance and another takeaway-packed defensive effort.

Iowa State 27, Houston 9

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