3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football against Iowa: Points will be at a premium

AMES — Much more than bragging rights is at stake Saturday when Iowa State visits Iowa for a college football game, but a little less in terms of impact on the season as a whole.

The expanded College Football Playoff’s guaranteed berth to all Power Four conference champions means a loss only diminishes any at-large hopes either team may have.

This game serves as the ultimate nonconference barometer for each program — and it’s invaluable in that sense, given it comes in Week 2. ISU enjoys its first of two bye weeks after Saturday, so whatever strengths and weaknesses are displayed in Iowa City can be augmented or fixed in advance of the nonconference season finale against Arkansas State.

The Cyclones’ offense, in particular, will gain valuable insights into how best to eventually attack Big 12 defenses. The only truly catastrophic event that could occur in Saturday’s game — regardless of outcome — would be more long-term injuries. ISU’s depth already is stretched thin at linebacker and on the offensive line. The Cyclones simply can’t afford to take any more hits on the health front.

Here are three keys to victory for ISU at Kinnick Stadium.

1. Take what is given

It’s possible to have success against Iowa’s defense, but it requires extreme patience and perceptiveness.

The Hawkeyes try to goad opposing offenses into making costly mistakes — and are willing to give up some first downs in order to induce that kind of self-destruction. Iowa State’s fallen into that trap by insisting on establishing the run and failing to do so, which sets up dicey third-and-long situations that Iowa’s defense feasts upon.

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So even if the Cyclones choose to pass to set up the run, they must be smart and precise while doing so. Deep shots are ill-advised misadventures unless ISU has stitched together a string of modest, but compounding gains to force the Hawkeyes’ defense to move their safeties up. That’s when Cyclone quarterback Rocco Becht can thrive downfield and find star receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins in single coverage.

2. Win the turnover margin

This, of course, is important every game but it’s imperative when facing an Iowa team renowned for playing clean football and shining in special teams play.

The Cyclones haven’t won the turnover battle in the Cy-Hawk game once during head coach Matt Campbell’s tenure — although the last two meetings have been pushes in that area. The Hawkeyes have scored a defensive touchdown in their last two wins in the series, which essentially negated ISU’s decided advantage in total offense each time.

The Cyclones improved dramatically in both taking care of the football and taking it away last season — especially during Big 12 play, so maintaining that trend will give them a good shot to leave Kinnick with a win. Failing to do so will likely spell doom and send ISU tumbling to its eighth loss in the past nine meetings in the series.

3. Turn the tables defensively

Iowa State struggled to stop the run against an FCS foe last weekend, giving up 174 yards on the ground to North Dakota in a 21-3 win in Ames.

The Cyclones must reinvigorate their run defense this week against an Iowa team that features a dynamic running back in Kaleb Johnson and several strong supporting cast members in the backfield. ISU’s allowed the Hawkeyes to rush for more than 100 yards just once in the past three meetings, but the defense is down two starters at linebacker, making it more vulnerable than it’s been in recent memory.

So expect veteran defensive coordinator Jon Heacock to show some new looks — more four-down lineman fronts? Bringing a safety up to assist the linebackers? — designed to force Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara into third-and-long situations.

Prediction for Iowa State against Iowa

Iowa State’s top receivers, Higgins and Noel, will be a problem for Iowa’s secondary, but a third (and possibly fourth) good option for Becht must emerge for him to put up big numbers.

Running the ball will likely be difficult and the Hawkeyes’ balanced offense should tax a Cyclone defense that’s depleted at linebacker. Points — as always — will be at a premium, and home field (despite ISU’s recent success at Kinnick) tips the scales.

Hawkeyes 20, Cyclones 17