3 keys, score prediction for Iowa State football against Cincinnati (Nov. 16, 2024)

AMES — Iowa State still can reach the Big 12 championship game if it wins out, but that’s a tall order considering the spate of injuries on both sides of the ball and recent mishaps that have struck at inopportune times.

Cincinnati (5-4, 3-3), Saturday night’s opponent, seeks to avenge a humbling, 30-10, loss to ISU at home in its inaugural season in the Big 12 last year and would be thrilled to send the Cyclones (7-2, 4-2) to their third straight loss.

ISU’s been beset by miscues and penalties in recent weeks, but it’s still tied for third nationally in fewest penalty yards per game at 30.2. A return to form in that area — along with sharp execution that’s been sloppy since the 7-0 start — would keep hope alive for ISU when it comes to the Big 12 race.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Stop giving, keep taking

The Cyclones defense failed to pry away a turnover for the first time this season in last week’s loss at Kansas. ISU had a couple of shots at takeaways — including a possible interception in the end zone by safety Jeremiah Cooper — but couldn’t complete the plays.

Being on the plus side of the turnover ledger fueled ISU’s 7-0 start. The Cyclones still rank second in the Big 12 in takeaways with 17 and must get greedy again in order to banish their two-game losing streak.

The Bearcats have been erratic on the turnover front, forcing 12 while committing 13. They rank ninth in the Big 12 in turnover margin and last week, quarterback Brendan Sorsby saw both an interception and a fumble returned for a touchdown in a 31-24 loss to West Virginia.

ISU quarterback Rocco Becht also threw a pick-6 last week, though, so strengthening ball security on offense while being opportunistic on defense will be of vital importance on Saturday night.

2. “Be the hammer”

Iowa State assistant head coach and running backs coach Tyler Roehl implores his players to “be the hammer, not the nail” — and that’s a dictate that should extend to the entire offense.

The Cyclones have suddenly become mistake-prone in their opponents’ territory, turning several possible scoring drives into punts, failed fourth-down conversions, or field goals instead of touchdowns. False starts and other pre-snap penalties must be greatly reduced or eliminated, and the offensive line needs to play its best game of the season.

Becht is excellent when he enjoys a clean pocket, but he’s been under duress frequently in recent weeks, which coincides with his team’s struggles. Keep him upright and the Cyclones should be able to put up ample points and yardage to win the game.

3. Plug holes quickly

ISU’s injury-riddled defense has dropped to 15th in the Big 12 against the run, allowing 173.1 yards per game.

The Bearcats aren’t much better, ranking 12th in the league while yielding 155 rushing yards per game, so both teams could find success running the football.

Cincinnati’s Sorsby is a true dual-threat quarterback, however, and the Cyclones have struggled to contain mobile play callers all season. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown against ISU last week, and UCF’s Jacurri Brown racked up a staggering 154 rushing yards and two touchdowns two games before that.

The Cyclones have been forced to play several inexperienced players on defense because of injuries, and they’ve made a handful of glaring mistakes in recent weeks that led to easy touchdowns. If they’ve learned from those miscues, expect fewer missed assignments and greater success against the run.

If they haven’t — or more injuries strike — the Bearcats are fully capable of exploiting ISU’s weaknesses.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. Cincinnati

The Bearcats feature a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Sorsby and two productive tailbacks in Corey Kiner and Evan Pryor. They’re strong up front on defense, but somewhat vulnerable in the secondary, which will put Cyclone offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser’s play-calling on center stage.

If ISU’s offense can control the game, a comfortable win awaits. If not, this could go down to the wire.

Iowa State 31, Cincinnati 20

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com