3 keys, prediction for Iowa State football against West Virginia

Iowa State hosts West Virginia at 2:30 p.m. Saturday, hoping to snap a five-game losing streak.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. No turnovers

Last week against Oklahoma, Iowa State quarterback Hunter Dekkers threw three interceptions in a game for the first time in seven starts. Now Dekkers — a talented redshirt sophomore — has been forced to carry the offense while the running game’s become almost non-existent, so his 11 total turnovers aren’t all on him.

He had to attempt 57 passes, which narrowed his margin of error yet again. The Cyclones have tumbled to eighth in the Big 12 in turnover margin (minus-3) after a solid start to the season. If that trend continues — especially on the offensive side of the ball — expect more long, but unfinished drives to continue to hamstring points production.

The good news? West Virginia ranks ninth the league in turnover margin (minus-4).

2. Get the run game going

ISU continues to get healthier in the running backs room and that should continue to shore up a rushing attack that’s been toothless in Big 12 play.

The Cyclones have yet to net more than 78 yards on the ground against conference foes, but carefully deploying Dekkers in the run game has, at least, helped a bit. That’s a high-risk proposition, though — and one ISU head coach Matt Campbell addressed during this week’s news conference. Bottom line: It’s unwise to run Dekkers a lot, given how that’s gone for several dual-threat Big 12 quarterbacks who are now injured.

So it’s imperative for the offensive line to open up bigger holes for Jirehl Brock and company — and for all of the Cyclones’ tailbacks to run north and south, not east and west.

3. Turn good ‘D’ into great ‘D’

ISU’s defense has been stout and stingy all season. The Cyclones are tied for seventh nationally in scoring defense with Alabama, allowing 16.6 points per game.

Still, defensive coordinator Jon Heacock said his unit has been “good,” but not “great,” and like ISU’s offense, an inability to make big plays at the right moment has been an issue at times.

“We still are making some errors in some critical situations,” Heacock said. “We had some scenarios last week with some third-down situations where we could really swing the game on our side of the ball and we left plays out there. We let a long ball get over our head. … Great defenses don’t let those plays get out of the gate.”

Case in point: The Cyclones are one of two Big 12 teams not to give up a rush of greater than 40 yards, but they’re also the only conference team to give up a passing play of 80 or more yards. Cut down on just a couple big plays and becoming “great” on defense will enter the realm of possibility.

What’s at stake

The season, just like last week. It’s just that the margin of error has shrunk — and ISU has obviously not been very good in the margins as of late.

No game on the schedule, including roads trips to Oklahoma State and TCU, is unwinnable, but when you’ve lost five straight games largely because of self-inflicted wounds, it becomes hard to believe the Cyclones can win at least three of their final four regular season games to qualify for a bowl for the sixth consecutive season.

A win against a similarly struggling West Virginia team would go a long way toward restoring hope that such a revival is possible.

West Virginia-Iowa State prediction

Las Vegas oddsmakers have pegged ISU as a seven-point favorite, but the Cyclones’ ongoing struggles to score touchdowns — especially at home — would seem to fly in the face of that projection.

Still, it’s very difficult to lose five straight games the way Iowa State has. Whenever the opposition needs to make a play, it does. Whenever the Cyclones do, well, the opposite has been true. That obviously needs to finally change for youthful ISU. But will it? I have doubts until I actually see it happen.

West Virginia 20, Iowa State 17

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com