3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Texas (Nov. 18, 2023)

AMES — Texas clings to modest hopes it can still find a path into the College Football Playoff, but must win out in order to have a chance to do so.

Iowa State — already bowl eligible for a program-record sixth time in the past six seasons — seeks to enhance its postseason hopes by beating the Longhorns for the fourth time in the past five meetings.

So the stakes are stratospherically high for both teams under the lights at Jack Trice Stadium in a Saturday night game that will be broadcast nationally on Fox.

ISU faces a tough road game at Kansas State next week to close the regular season, so notching a seventh win Saturday against a Top 10 team would bolster confidence as well as keep faint hopes of reaching the Big 12 title game alive.

Here are three keys to victory for the Cyclones.

1. Iowa State has to be smart with the pressure

If Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is given time in the pocket, watch out.

The Longhorns’ star sophomore is rated the Big 12’s second-most efficient passer and owns a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio while dealing with injuries this season. So how can Iowa State’s defensive front make him uncomfortable?

Well, rushing three won’t work — and hasn’t all season, as the Cyclones are tied for 110th nationally in quarterback sacks with 17. That means ISU defensive coordinator Jon Heacock likely will need to devise some creative blitz packages to entrap Ewers, but that’s also a dicey proposition given the Longhorns’ deep stable of big-play receivers that includes Xavier Worthy and Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell.

So expect the Cyclones to be judicious in terms of when and how to pressure Ewers, while still being watchful against the run. Star tailback Jonathon Brooks is out for the season with an ACL injury, but capable freshman CJ Baxter likely will start in his place. He’s a threat in the run and pass game, which adds another wrinkle to ISU’s risk-reward equation in terms of pursuing Ewers.

2. Iowa State should pass to set up the run

The Cyclones are coming off their most productive ground performance of the season in last week’s rout of BYU, but will likely find far fewer holes within a Texas defense that leads the Big 12 and ranks ninth nationally in stopping the run (90.1 yards allowed per game).

There’s just one way to loosen up the Longhorns’ defense and that’s through quick short and intermediate-range passes that use every inch of the field. Texas ranks 12th in the Big 12 in pass defense, allowing 247 yards per game through the air.

The Longhorns also have been vulnerable against tall pass catchers over the middle of the field — and the Cyclones feature two such players in 6-foot-4 receiver Jayden Higgins and 6-7 tight end Benjamin Brahmer. Hitting either of them for a big gain or two would allow ISU’s tailbacks to carve out more room to roam on the ground.

3. Iowa State needs to protect Rocco Becht

Texas has struck for 26 quarterback sacks, which is tied for 32nd-best nationally, so keeping edge rusher Ethan Burke and his fellow defensive line mates out of the backfield is a difficult task.

Still, the Cyclones have excelled in that area, yielding just nine sacks to opposing defenses, which is tied for seventh-best in the country.

Becht, ISU’s redshirt freshman quarterback, has become increasingly adept at reading defenses as his first season as a starter has progressed, so giving him a decent amount of time to survey the field could conjure up some big-play possibilities. Becht connected with speedy junior receiver Jaylin Noel for two touchdowns last week and has thrown just two interceptions in the past five games.

Texas-Iowa State prediction

The No. 7 Longhorns lost one of the best tailbacks in the country to injury when Brooks tore his ACL. Insert another 5-star recruit in his place, though, as this game will be won in the trenches.

Texas boasts one of the nation’s Top 10 rushing defenses and it’s likely ISU will need to attack that group with quick-hitting passes in order to find some measure of success on the ground.

A turnover or two should tip the scales in this matchup as a relatively short-lived series comes to an end because of conference realignment/greed.

Texas 27, Iowa State 17