3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Oklahoma State in Saturday’s Big 12 opener

What’s at stake Saturday when Iowa State opens Big 12 play against Oklahoma State at Jack Trice Stadium?

Mainly, any realistic hope that ISU can prevent suffering through a second consecutive losing season.

The Cowboys are in utter disarray — and that must be particularly troubling for head coach Mike Gundy because he leads such a veteran team onto the field each week.

Oklahoma State ranks 107th or worse in scoring offense and rushing offense, so the Cyclones’ defense should be able to once again be parsimonious in terms of allowing points. But ISU’s offense lags behind the Cowboys in every offensive category, which likely gives the visiting team hope that it can be equally hard to pierce.

The Cyclones haven’t started a season with a 1-3 mark since 2018 — and that team racked up five straight Big 12 wins after that meager beginning. This ISU team does not have the established playmakers that the 2018 team did, so a loss on Saturday would likely deepen apathy among an already uneasy fan base.

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. (FS1). Here are three keys to victory.

1. Let Rocco rip

Sure, Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht is a redshirt freshman, but he’s provided plenty of game-time evidence he’s capable of slinging it all over the field.

He’s also been the Cyclones’ most effective rusher because his runs are improvised, not scripted.

ISU’s obviously struggled mightily on schemed runs, and Becht’s thrown for 200-plus yards in the past two games. His touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two losses is a middling 2-to-3 but one pick came after receiver Jayden Higgins fell down and another came in desperation mode as time was running out.

Bottom line: If Becht’s “the guy” — at least for now — at quarterback, it’s time to fully hand him the reins of ISU’s scuffling offense and see what he can do with it. Becht’s been at his best in late-game touchdown drives, throwing a pair of touchdown passes to Higgins the past two weeks. It’s also encouraging that he helped pull the Cyclones back into the game last week against Ohio by engineering a two-play, 72-yard drive that began with a 39-yard strike to Daniel Jackson.

  Buy Photo

2. Apply pressure liberally

Defensive coordinator Jon Heacock is often content to see how much pressure his three-man front can place on the quarterback early in games, but given Oklahoma State’s perplexing three-way situation at playcaller, it could be a good idea to spring blitzes early and often in hopes of getting a quick takeaway or two.

The Cyclones have yet to recover a fumble this season and all three of their takeaways have come on interceptions by safety Jeremiah Cooper. Two of the Cowboys’ three quarterbacks have thrown an interception, so making them uncomfortable from the opening snap should provide ISU with plenty of opportunities to force turnovers.

3. Spread the field

The Cyclones’ running game is simply broken.

Now, it certainly can be fixed, but the general plan of attack — running between the tackles — has been blown up the past two games as well as most of last season. So perhaps ISU’s first-year offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase will draw up more outside runs to allow his top tailbacks Cartevious Norton and Abu Sama to make plays in space.

Perhaps he’ll also attack the sidelines with more quick-hit passes to backs and receivers, which could open up the run game and create more opportunities for tight ends over the middle of the field.

At any rate, something has to change for the Cyclones’ offense, which has scored just five touchdowns in its first three games.

Oklahoma State-Iowa State prediction

The Cowboys are apparently sticking with a three-quarterback rotation. The Cyclones claim that they’ll take great pains to establish their running game despite a lack of success through three games.

Wild card: Potentially stormy and windy weather.

I expect both teams to change up their offenses more than either coach is letting on, but just how much and in what ways given the iffy weather conditions? Therein lies the intrigue, if you can call it that.

Oklahoma State 13, Iowa State 10