3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Oklahoma

AMES — Iowa State doesn’t have much to lose Saturday night at Oklahoma, frankly.

As almost three-touchdown underdogs, the Cyclones should play free and loose; intent on upending the outside world’s narrative. The pressure’s squarely on the Sooners, who could get caught looking ahead to next week’s Red River Rivalry game against Texas.

ISU doesn’t sneak up on anybody anymore, however — especially the Sooners, who haven’t blown out the Cyclones since the end of the Paul Rhoads era. That could change on Saturday, but falling to 2-3 overall and 1-1 in Big 12 play wouldn’t be devastating for ISU.

Few outside observers expected the Cyclones to achieve anything more than a possible return to bowl eligibility given their overall youth and last season’s 4-8 mark. Reaching that level remains fully on the table regardless of Saturday’s outcome.

Here are three keys to victory for Iowa State.

1. Iowa State needs to keep it clean

The Cyclones can’t afford any preventable mistakes if they hope to upset the Sooners — and that’s true in all phases.

That starts with turnovers. ISU is 2-0 this season when winning the turnover margin and 29-9 in the Matt Campbell era when being on the positive side of that all-important ledger.

Next comes field goal kicking. Chase Contreraz rebounded from barely missing two critical kicks in the 10-7 loss at Ohio by powering two long field goals (51 and 46 yards) through the uprights in last week’s 34-27 win over Oklahoma State. Contreraz also saw a field goal try blocked in the 20-13 loss to Iowa, so he’s served as a bellwether on special teams on a weekly basis — and must be elite on Saturday.

Punter Tyler Perkins should continue to flip field position and pre-snap penalties must also be kept to a minimum. The Cyclones simply need to execute at an elite level across the board to have a shot at springing another upset on the Sooners, who rank fourth nationally in third down conversion rate (58.5 percent).

2. Iowa State needs to get to Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel

Oklahoma’s seasoned and skilled starting quarterback has been sacked just three times through four games this season, so ISU defensive coordinator Jon Heacock won’t likely be able to pressure him when rushing just three defensive linemen.

Getting Dillon Gabriel on the ground will require a creative approach — and stopping the Sooners’ middling running game could be the key to unlocking that potential. If Oklahoma’s three primary running backs are unable to find running room, ISU’s defense can attack Gabriel in the pocket to finally force him into some uncomfortable situations.

He’s thrown 12 touchdown passes and just one interception, so he’s thrived amid any pressure so far, but he’s not immune from making uncharacteristic mistakes.

3. Iowa State should let Rocco rip (again)

The Cyclones’ running game should be relegated to decoy status until further notice, so quarterback Rocco Becht will likely need to throw the ball 40 or more times if the offense is to gain any traction.

Becht only needed 38 attempts to throw for a career-best 348 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s win, but the Sooners’ up-tempo offense should yield Becht more opportunities in the passing and running games.

Even a meager effort on the ground — like last week’s 74 yards on 34 carries — could create more downfield opportunities for Becht to connect with top receivers such as Jaylin Noel, Jayden Higgins and Daniel Jackson.

Oklahoma’s given up 13 passing plays of 20-plus yards, so if Becht’s patient — and he has time — hitting on intermediate passes will help sustain potentially productive drives.

Prediction for Iowa State at Oklahoma

Each of the Cyclones’ past eight meetings with the Sooners has been decided by 10 or fewer points — and ISU’s won two of the past seven regular-season meetings after suffering through an 18-game skid in the series.

This one hinges on which offense can make the most big plays and the Crimson and Cream have the edge in that regard. It likely won’t be a stress-free jaunt for the home team, however — and that 20-point Vegas line (as of Thursday afternoon) is way too high.

Oklahoma 31, Iowa State 20

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