3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Kansas State (Nov. 30, 2024)

AMES — Iowa State (9-2, 6-2) will almost certainly reach the Big 12 championship game if it can beat Kansas State (8-3, 5-3) for the fourth time in the past five meetings.

Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. (Fox) on Saturday.

There are scenarios in which a handful of upsets would keep ISU out of AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, but a just-win and wait-and-see mentality will be required regardless of how anything else plays out.

The Cyclones can achieve their first 10-win season ever and they’ve been determined to make history all season. They can do that by shrugging off the shivers induced by sub-20 degree temperatures and remain in contention for a berth in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

Here are three keys to victory.

1. All takes, no gives

Iowa State has slipped to fourth in the Big 12 in turnover margin at plus-seven. That’s still a solid number, but the Cyclones have been held without an interception for three consecutive games — and they’ve forced just one turnover in that span.

ISU has turned the ball over once in each of the past three games, but each of those have been costly, and a blocked punt for touchdown last week at Utah doesn’t technically count as a turnover. So the Cyclones are trending the wrong way in the turnover ledger, which must change on Saturday and beyond.

ISU quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown five interceptions in the past five games — and three of those errant tosses have turned into pick-6s. If Becht plays a clean game and the defense can force a turnover or two, the Cyclones should be able to ensure they’ll win at least 10 games for the first time in program history.

2. Choose finesse to fuel power

Kansas State’s defense leads the Big 12 in stopping the run, allowing just 108.4 yards per game. The Wildcats struggle against the pass, ranking 12th in the conference while yielding 231.5 yards per game through the air.

So it’s a no-brainer ISU will pass to set up the run, right? It’s not quite that simple, but if Kansas State loads the box as anticipated, expect Cyclones offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser to unveil some new looks while getting Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins involved early and often.

ISU won’t abandon the run and may lean into it at times — and that’s a good thing. The Cyclones gobbled up 240-plus yards on the ground against top-four conference rushing defenses Houston and UCF, so they’ve made good groups look bad with their trip of tailbacks led by Carson Hansen.

Deep shots will be available, however, and Higgins and Noel’s last regular-season game at Jack Trice Stadium should be memorable if the offensive line can protect Becht from a formidable K-State pass rush.

3. Aggravate Avery

Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson has beaten teams with his arm and his legs, but usually it’s a combination of the two.

That’s a problem for ISU, which has given up 287, 237 and 354 yards rushing in its past three games against teams featuring full-time dual-threat quarterbacks.

Johnson has rushed for 60 or more yards five times this season and totaled 72 on the ground in last week’s rout of Cincinnati. He also rushed for a touchdown while throwing for two more in that game.

Johnson’s not particularly accurate as a passer, but he is productive, totaling 19 touchdowns to eight interceptions. ISU must devise ways to knock him off kilter and if it can’t, expect Johnson to rack up big numbers.

Prediction for Iowa State vs. Kansas State

Last season, a snowstorm engulfed Manhattan and Abu Sama dashed through it, leading the Cyclones to victory. Saturday night, it will simply be cold as heck — and who knows what will happen.

Kansas State quarterback Johnson may be the most talented mobile play caller the Cyclones have faced this season, and that’s a problem considering how much they’ve struggled against dual-threat performers.

As usual, this one should go down to the wire. A late takeaway seals the outcome and ISU gets to 10 wins for the first time in program history.

Iowa State 38, Kansas State 35

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com