3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Kansas

It’s been 15 years since a ranked Kansas football team rolled into Jack Trice Stadium and escaped with a narrow win, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for both teams this time around.

The Cyclones (5-3, 4-1 Big 12) could lock up bowl eligibility Saturday night before closing the regular season with two road games (at BYU, at Kansas State), and a big home date with Texas sandwiched between.

ISU hopes to remain among the handful of teams tied for the conference lead and to do so, it will need to put together its best defensive effort of the season.

The No. 22 Jayhawks (6-2, 3-2) haven’t won in Ames since their then-16th-ranked team came back for a 35-33 triumph in that fateful game 15 years ago.

It’s homecoming for the Cyclones, who have spoiled such occasions in their last two road wins at Baylor and Cincinnati. Kansas wants nothing more than to ruin ISU’s weekend while consequently inching up the Big 12 standings, as well.

Here are three keys for the Cyclones.

1. Exude efficiency

Iowa State’s dramatic improvement in converting on red zone scoring chances stands as one of many reasons the win-loss column looks far more attractive than it did last season.

The Cyclones are ranked 28th nationally in terms of scoring points when driving inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Last season, ISU checked in at a lowly 128th among 131 FBS programs in that statistical category.

New kicker Chase Contreraz’s 15-for-19 mark on field goals helps explain the spike in red zone production, but the Cyclones still have plenty of work to do when it comes to scoring touchdowns in such situations.

ISU’s red zone touchdown percentage sits at just 57.1, which ranks 81st nationally. So it’s imperative the Cyclones finish most of their successful drives with seven points instead of three against the Jayhawks, who are scoring touchdowns on red zone opportunities at a 67.7 percent clip (32nd nationally).

2. Derail Devin Neal (and company)

Kansas’ top three running backs — Devin Neal, Daniel Hishaw Jr. and Dylan McDuffie — each average 5.5 or more yards per carry.

And quarterback Jason Bean, despite being sacked five times, is averaging 5.0 yards per tote so this group will test Iowa State’s front six on defense more sternly than any previous foe this season. Neal and Hishaw form the Big 12’s best 1-2 punch out of the backfield and they’ve combined for 15 rushing touchdowns (Neal seven, Hishaw eight).

The so-called “Booth Brothers” also have rushed for a combined 1,259 yards, which makes them the most prolific backfield duo among Power 5 schools. The Jayhawks rank 13th nationally in rushing offense (213.6 yards per game) and have totaled 225 or more yards on the ground in five of their six wins.

3. Lean on the specialists

Contreraz, a transfer from Nebraska, has been a godsend for the Cyclones at placekicker.

The senior from Missouri Valley is tied for seventh nationally in field goals made (15) and has converted 12 of 13 attempts during Big 12 play. So if a late kick is needed to secure a victory, ISU can be confident Contreraz will almost certainly come through.

Similarly, sophomore punter Tyler Perkins has served as a difference-maker in terms of flipping field position. He ranks 20th nationally in punting average (44.2 yards per boot) and has placed 13 kicks inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Perkins also has booted the football 50-plus yards 13 times this season — up from nine in 2022.

Iowa State vs. Kansas prediction

The last time the Cyclones faced a ranked Kansas team in Ames was in 2008 — when head coach Mark Mangino had the Jayhawks riding high.

ISU led by as many as 20 points, but lost, 35-33.

Expect a similarly competitive game on Saturday night at Jack Trice Stadium, but if either team builds a 20-point lead, a comeback win is unlikely.

Kansas has an elite rushing offense. The Cyclones are returning to form as a very good rushing defense. As usual, a turnover or two likely determines the outcome of this one — and the home team’s shined in this area this season.

Iowa State 31, Kansas 27