3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Iowa in 2023 Cy-Hawk game

Iowa State hosts Iowa on Saturday in the annual Cy-Hawk football showdown.

Here a three keys to an ISU victory:

1. Keep the shine on special teams

Special teams gaffes usually portend losses for ISU, especially in the Cy-Hawk game, but in last week’s 30-9 season-opening win over Northern Iowa, those units excelled (save for a bad snap/hold on one PAT).

Punter Tyler Perkins averaged 53.6 yards per punt and — with special teams standout Darien Porter’s help — saw a 70-yard boot downed at the 2-yard line. Graduate transfer place-kicker Chase Contreraz powered a 56-yard field goal attempt through the uprights and punt returner/wide receiver Jaylin Noel averaged 30 yards per return.

Suffice it to say, then, ISU’s on as solid footing in this area as it has been in recent years, but proving that last week’s performance wasn’t a one-time event will be critical if the Cyclones are to retain hopes of winning consecutive Cy-Hawk games for the first time since 2011-12.

2. Banish turnovers

This, obviously, is an evergreen requirement when factoring in the Cyclones’ penchant for playing close games.

It’s especially urgent when facing Iowa, which finally committed a critical turnover in ISU’s 10-7 triumph after remarkably playing turnover-free football in the previous six Cy-Hawk matchups.

The Cyclones overcame three turnovers in last season’s win — a performance that absolutely cannot be reprised. Winning in spite of coughing up the ball that many times is a rare occurrence and ISU is 11-26 in the Matt Campbell era when losing the turnover battle.

The Cyclones carry a plus-two turnover margin into Saturday’s game but the most important element of that ratio is keeping the turnovers lost column at zero.

3. Win up front

ISU’s aforementioned trio of turnovers in last season’s Cy-Hawk game overshadowed a dominant performance in the trenches. The Cyclones outgained the Hawkeyes 313 yards to 150 and have created a decided edge in terms of yardage in each of the past two meetings.

That didn’t matter in a 27-17 loss in 2021 in which Iowa turned four takeaways into 20 of its points, but that proved to be an outlier. The Cyclones are 38-15 in the Campbell era when they gain more yardage than the opposing offense — but it's even more important to win in the run game.

That’s usually a dicey proposition against the Hawkeyes’ always-stout front seven, but ISU was able to outrush Iowa 129 yards to 58 last season. The Cyclones won’t be able to reproduce such a disparity unless a mostly veteran but wholly unproven offensive line is able to create some daylight for tailbacks Cartevious Norton, Abu Sama and others.

What’s at stake for Iowa State against Iowa

Bragging rights and recruiting momentum.

The Cy-Hawk game rarely serves as an accurate indicator of the arc of either team’s journey as the season wears on. Last season, ISU went 2-8 after winning at Kinnick Stadium. In 2022, the Hawkeyes went a middling 6-5 after handling the Cyclones on the road.

Records, however, are not the only gauge of a team’s trajectory. ISU is younger than it has ever been — particularly on offense — and simply producing another 60 minutes of game video should prove to be valuable as a trip to Ohio looms ahead of a highly challenging Big 12 slate.

There are still a lot of “ors” on the depth chart and they’re accompanied by a lot of “ifs.” If the Cyclones can run the ball and if the special teams renaissance turns into a trend instead of a one-off, posting a second-straight win in the series is squarely on the table.

Those are big “ifs,” though — and areas that usually aren’t strengths for ISU when facing the Hawkeyes.

Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction

If either team establishes a solid running game that alone could tip the scales in a Cy-Hawk game that once again should put the punters — and possibly place-kickers — under the spotlight. If the Cyclones play a clean game (e.g. no turnovers, good special teams play) attaining a win shifts from possible to probable. The same mundane formula for success applies to the Hawkeyes, though. That’s why I’m picking the home team in what I expect to be the ultimate “pick ‘em” game.

Iowa State 16, Iowa 13