3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Cincinnati

For the Iowa State and Cincinnati football teams, losing Saturday’s game means hopes for attaining bowl eligibility start to fade from quite possible to somewhat unlikely.

As ISU head coach Matt Campbell often says, the margin of error for his team is minuscule — and it’s likely that Bearcats head coach Scott Satterfield shares a similar sentiment.

The Cyclones are riding a wave of momentum created by last week’s plus-four performance in terms of turnover margin as well as the reinvigorated run game. They also seek their first road win of the season and Campbell correctly noted his best ISU teams have been “elite” away from home.

Getting on track in that regard could allow his players and fans alike to dream bigger than simply getting back to a bowl game.

Here are three keys to victory.

1. Take what’s given

The Cyclones’ offense suddenly came to life three weeks ago in a 34-27 win over Oklahoma State.

Why? ISU found success downfield in the passing game when the Cowboys crowded the line of scrimmage. The Cyclones didn’t abandon the run. They simply found more creative ways to stretch the field from sideline to sideline.

That approach has continued to produce solid gains — and helped revive a long-struggling running game. ISU has rushed for 150 or more yards in consecutive games for the first time since midway through the 2021 season and that spike in output has come largely because first-year offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase is taking what the defense gives him.

So if the Bearcats lighten the box on Saturday, big plays in the ground game could occur. But if Cincinnati loads the box, it’s likely that Cyclone quarterback Rocco Becht will be called upon to loosen up the defense via the air.

So ISU’s offense is multi-dimensional for the first time in a long time and forces defenses to adjust throughout the game instead of simply committing to stopping the run.

2. Spy on Emory Jones

Former Missouri transfer Zach Lovett notched a sack for the second week in a row while working to contain TCU quarterback Chandler Morris in last week’s 27-14 win.

Lovett excels in space, so don’t be surprised if he’s frequently called upon to pressure multi-talented Cincinnati quarterback Emory Jones from the linebacker position. Jones has thrown 10 touchdown passes and rushed for another three, but he can be goaded into throwing interceptions (six this season).

The Bearcats field a run-first offense that ranks 10th nationally in yards per game (220.2) and Jones is the second-leading rusher. If he’s kept in check, leading rusher Corey Kiner (5.3 yards per carry) can still enjoy success, but it’s more difficult to do so without Jones’s considerable contributions.

3. Protect Rocco Becht

The Cyclones’ offensive line has been excellent in pass protection this season and is tied for second nationally in sacks allowed at 3.0.

It will be a challenge to maintain that elite level of protection against the Bearcats’ brawny and experienced front four, however, which boasts 12 sacks this season. That solid number may have been inflated in the preseason — Cincinnati had 10 sacks in its first three games — but the combination of Dontay “The Godfather” Corleone at nose tackle and a trio of relentless senior defensive ends (Jowon Briggs, Eric Phillips and Malik Vann) have combined for 4.5 sacks.

So if Becht’s required to throw the ball with great frequency, it’s imperative for the offensive line to excel in passing situations yet again.

Iowa State vs. Cincinnati prediction

Fun fact: Jones took his first college snap on Sept. 1, 2018, or roughly a month before former Cyclone star Brock Purdy began his epic rise by rallying his team to beat Oklahoma State on the road.

Purdy, of course, is now a stunning NFL success story two seasons in the making. Jones is obviously still playing college football — and will be a problem for a Cyclone defense that shined in the second half last week.

If ISU can force Jones into some difficult decisions, a win seems likely. If it can’t, the converse is true.

Iowa State 24, Cincinnati 20