3 keys and a score prediction for Iowa State football against Baylor

Baylor fans are souring on football coach Dave Aranda, who won the Big 12 championship just two seasons ago and is well-liked and well-respected by fellow coaches.

The Bears (3-4, 2-2 Big 12) have been blown out in their two conference losses to Texas and Texas Tech. So there’s discontent there and if Iowa State can start strong, it will be interesting to see if Baylor’s resilient enough to punch back.

ISU (4-3, 3-1) has started 4-1 or better in Big 12 play just twice in program history. Both instances (2017 and 2020) occurred during head coach Matt Campbell’s six-plus seasons at the helm and if the Cyclones can get the win on Saturday, just about everything short of catching Oklahoma atop the conference standings becomes a distinct possibility in terms of the win-loss record.

Here are three keys to victory.

1. Establish the run

The Bears’ run defense ranks last in the Big 12. It’s uncharacteristic for a Aranda-coached team, but it’s a deficiency the Cyclones absolutely must exploit to win in Waco for the first time in six years.

Baylor’s allowing 199.0 yards per game on the ground and ISU’s averaging 166.2 yards rushing over the past three games. The Cyclones’ trio of Eli Sanders, Abu Sama and Cartevious Norton carved up TCU for 215 yards on the ground three weeks ago and controlling the line of scrimmage will be all-important again against a talent-rich, but young Baylor defense.

Sama’s been banged up recently, but even if he’s out, other Cyclone backs — including quarterback Rocco Becht and fourth-string tailback Carson Hansen — are fully capable of producing significant gains in the run game.

Baylor’s allowed a Big 12-worst six rushes of 40 or more yards, so if the offensive line continues to show improvement, there should be plenty of opportunities to spring big plays from the backfield.

2. Keep it clean (again)

It’s impossible to overstate how important it’s been for ISU to force more turnovers while limiting its own this season — and the proof is in the team’s 3-1 start in conference play.

The Cyclones are tied for 10th nationally in turnover margin after failing to place better than 46th nationally in that statistical category since 2017. That ISU team ranked 16th in the country in turnover margin, so this season’s performance has proved to be a welcomed outlier in that regard.

The Cyclones have neither lost nor forced a fumble this season and Becht’s been sacked just five times. The strong protection from the offensive line has allowed the redshirt freshman quarterback time to make good decisions quickly, thus limiting turnovers. He’s becoming adept at recognizing what’s available while rapidly assessing risk.

Baylor’s lost just eight turnovers this season (four fumbles, four interceptions), so getting on the plus side of that ledger once again turns a possible ISU victory into a probable one.

3. Get to Blake Shapen

Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen has missed three games because of an MCL injury, but he seems to be healthy now.

He was sorely missed, however, as the Bears managed to win just one of those games — a lackluster 30-7 victory over FCS Long Island. Shapen has yet to throw an interception this season and has scored eight total touchdowns (five passing, three rushing).

He’s managed to avoid turning the ball over despite being sacked nine times in his past two games, but pressure has forced him into making mistakes in the past. The 6-foot, 215-pound junior from Shreveport, La., threw 10 interceptions last season — the second-most among Big 12 quarterbacks.

Reserve linebacker Zach Lovett could be a factor here, as he’s been deployed as a quarterback spy recently and boasts 2.5 sacks in the past three games.

Iowa State vs. Baylor prediction

The Cyclones have discovered a running game in Big 12 play and that trend must continue if they are to win at Baylor for just the second time in 14 years.

The Bears are allowing foes to rush for a staggering 199.0 yards per game (125th nationally), so controlling the line of scrimmage shouldn’t be difficult. The wild card in all this is Shapen, who’s experienced and efficient — and has yet to turn the ball over while battling injuries this season.

If the Cyclones can bother him, expect a win.

Iowa State 24, Baylor 17

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com