Prominent analysts drop Iowa State to a projected 4-seed as Selection Sunday looms

AMES — Fortunes rise and fall. Forecasts vary as upsets emerge and buzzer-beaters reign supreme.

That why the cliché term “March Madness” broadly applies to the NCAA Tournament — both in terms of the seeding process and the hyper-intense, pulse-pounding gameplay that stretches into April.

So where might the injury-plagued and 12th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones stand as Selection Sunday looms?

As a No. 4 seed, according to the two most prominent bracketologists, Joe Lunardi of ESPN, and Jerry Palm of CBS Sports. ISU (24-9) appeared comfortably positioned as a No. 3 seed — and may still be, as the committee doesn’t always agree with the bracketologists — and likely headed to Milwaukee, with thousands of their fans in tow.

That’s still possible, but Lunardi’s Saturday morning version of the brackets ship the Cyclones off to Seattle to play 13-seed Akron (presuming the Zips win the MAC Championship) in the first round of a geographic outlier in the East Regional. Palm put ISU closer to home in Denver, but also in the East, with a projected matchup with 13th-seeded Big South champion High Point looming in the first round.

So are they right? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, the Cyclones will embark on a potentially daunting and thrilling run that could take them just about anywhere — especially if injured star guards Tamin Lipsey (groin) and Keshon Gilbert (muscle strain) can return to the lineup.

Gilbert, who didn’t play in either of ISU’s Big 12 tournament games, called his injury “day-to-day.” Lipsey’s now in the same boat, but he’s hopeful a week off will help him heal up enough to be able to play.

“Right now I’m not super certain of what it’s gonna look like,” Lipsey said after sitting out Thursday’s 96-92 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal loss to No. 17 BYU. “I’ll be working with (head athletic trainer) Vic (Miller) a lot in the training room and be on the court as soon as I can. … I’m gonna work as hard as I can, and I’m definitely gonna step (foot) on the court.”

Maryland and Wisconsin appeared to have recently jumped the Cyclones in Lunardi’s and Palm’s projections, but both will face tough foes in the Big Ten tournament semifinals on Saturday. Kentucky — which compiled two more Quad 1 wins along with three more Quad 1 losses than ISU — is also a stern competitor when it comes to playing in Milwaukee.

So Selection Sunday will be an edge-of-the-seat affair for ISU, as usual. The one certainty: The Cyclones will play in its fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament since head coach T.J. Otzelberger took over a 2-22 program. ISU’s reeled off two Sweet 16 runs in that relatively short span and regardless of seed, it’s still built to make a deep run.

“It's extremely important that you lay it on the line, that you play for your teammates, that your pride shows up,” Otzelberger said. “We’ve had ups and downs this season. We've had some great moments and we've had ones that we could have been better. When you have those experiences it brings you closer together, and I feel like our group right now there is a camaraderie, there is a bond, a connection and they want to play for one another. This time of the year, special things can happen when you maintain that commitment.”

By all accounts, that bond remains sturdy even as the lineup’s been unsettled by injuries and/or illnesses for nearly two months. The Cyclones are convinced they can compete with anybody, even at less than full strength. No one knows what will happen. Everyone’s dreaming of what could happen. Especially if Gilbert and/or Lipsey is back — but nothing’s guaranteed amid the “Madness.”

“(If) they come back, they’re gonna be good obviously,” said forward Milan Momcilovic, who has scored in double figures in 10 of 12 games after missing nearly a month with a hand injury. “But we’re gonna keep elevating our game to another level, so hopefully we’ll peek in the next couple of weeks.”

Iowa State’s NCAA resume

Record: 24-9.

Big 12: 13-7 (5th).

Big 12 tournament: Quarterfinalist. Beat Cincinnati, 76-56; lost to BYU, 96-92.

NET ranking: 10 (as of late morning Saturday).

Last 10: 6-4.

Quad 1: 9-7. Quad 2: 7-1. Quad 3: 3-1. Quad 4: 5-0.

Best wins: Texas Tech (A), Arizona (H), Kansas (H).

Worst losses: Oklahoma State (A), Kansas State (H), West Virginia (A).

What they’re saying: ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projected the Cyclones as a No. 4 seed as of late Saturday morning, heading to Seattle to play 13-seed Akron in the first round, and either No. 5 seed Michigan or 12th-seeded Liberty in the second.

CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm also pegs the Cyclones as a 4-seed in the Duke-led East Regional, but he projects them opening tournament play against 13-seed High Point in Denver, with a possible second-round matchup against either Purdue (No. 5 seed) or Drake (12-seed) lurking in the Mile High City.

Comments: robgray18@icloud.com