Zach Johnson the No. 9 pick to win the U.S. Open?

This surprised me.

ESPN golf writer Jason Sobel, a Hlog favorite, always ranks the entire field of major tournaments in how he thinks their chances are of winning the event.

At this week's U.S. Open, he tabs Zach Johnson of Cedar Rapids No. 9. I wouldn't have expected him ranked so high. I keep reading about how very, very long the Open course is playing, which obviously favors longer hitters. Johnson isn't among those.

But here's Sobel's rationale from his ESPN.com piece, linked here:

Despite winning the Masters two years ago, it's very possible that Johnson didn't mature into an elite player until recently. A mini-meltdown at Quail Hollow notwithstanding, he's transformed into one of the coolest customers when the chips are on the line in a final round, having won three titles since late last season.

The self-described normal guy from Iowa owns a befuddling U.S. Open record -- two made cuts in five starts, no finish better than T-45 -- but the tourney should suit him. He's due for a strong result in this one.

Johnson himself, though not lacking for confidence, might not pick himself in the top nine. At least not judging by this passage in a USA Today story this week:

Brady Riggs of Golf.com calls Johnson a 12-to-1 shot to win the Open, which is pretty complimentary. Wrote Riggs:

His ball flight is a low draw which is not great for the U.S. Open. At Bethpage, you need a high, soft shot and Johnson doesn't have one. On the plus side, he's having a good year and we know he can win a big one.

By the way, one of Johnson's playing partners Thursday and Friday is Sobel's pick at No. 156 and last. It's 19-year-old amateur David Erdy from Indiana University, who got in the field as an alternate when Shingo Katayama withdrew.