The next phase

As the rest of the college football world percolates, the Big Ten is in "deep breath" mode.

When asked about further expansion, however, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany didn't say no. He didn't say yes, either, but the conference clearly hasn't shut the door.

“We're still going to be open and aware of what's going on around us,” Delany said. “We will continue to study the process. I don't think the change that is in play is going to abate.”

Change is the constant. As it stood Monday afternoon, the Big 12, now 10, had a plan in place to keep the conference intact. Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe has, according to Orangebloods.com, "secured assurances" that the conference could have a TV deal in place that would allot $17 million a year to the remaining 10 teams.

Word on that could come as early as 4 p.m. out of Missouri, where the school's coaches met to discuss conference affiliation.

This plan loses steam, though, if Texas A&M jumps on a reported offer to the SEC.

Meanwhile, deep breath in the Big Ten.

“I want to get back with our presidents, athletic directors and take a deep breath and see what some other possibilities might be,” Delany said.

When Big Ten expansion talk started last December, Delany mentioned a “12 to 18 month” time period for study. He mentioned that again Friday. So did Michigan State president Lou Anna Simon, who said Friday that “two-thirds” of the study period remain in play.

“There could be less of a change than people speculate on, there could be something as seismic as others have speculated on,” Delany said. “For us, we're in a great place. We're stronger today than we were yesterday.”

Delany said the Big Ten isn't working under any particular timeline, which could mean that the Big 12 or Pac-10 expansion talks would have no affect on further Big Ten expansion.

This would especially hold true if the Big Ten looks east.

Rutgers has long been on the Big Ten's radar. According to a March report in the Chicago Tribune, Chicago-based William Blair & Company LLC was hired to evaluate whether adding as many as five schools would generate enough revenue to make it worthwhile. The firm evaluated Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Missouri, Syracuse and Rutgers, according to the Tribune.

Rutgers would give the conference and the Big Ten Network a toehold in the New York media market, the U.S.'s biggest.

The BTN has negotiated fees with cable television carriers of as much as 88 cents per month for each subscriber in the Big Ten market, according to a report on Bloomberg.com. Outside the market it gets five cents.

The New York market would mean at least an additional $20 million in revenue for the conference, according to the Bloomberg.com report.

According to tax documents, Rutgers received $8.024 million from the Big East for football and basketball during the 2008 fiscal year. In 2009, with some variance, Big Ten schools received $19.9 million from all revenue streams, with the Big Ten Network kicking up between $6 and $7 million apiece.

If cable households drive the Big Ten's expansion, Maryland and Washington D.C. and Baltimore TV market, No. 9 in the country, would make sense.

If smashing a hole in the Big East and forcing Notre Dame's hand to make the leap into the Big Ten is the goal, then Connecticut could become a viable option. UConn isn't a member of the American Association of Universities, but it did rank No. 66 on the U.S. News and World Report's 2010 list of top colleges. The University of Iowa ranked No. 71 on that list.

Even though it was never the goal, Delany said Friday that he "presumes" the Big Ten will go ahead with a football championship game in 2011.

A 12th team allows the Big Ten to set up a title game. NCAA rules prohibit a championship game unless a conference has at least 12 teams and two divisions. According to a story in the USA Today, a Big Ten title game could mean as much as $12 million to the conference.

The Big Ten could emerge from "deep breath" mode and stand pat.

In the ever-shifting world that is conference realignment, check back in five minutes.