The Big Analysis -- Orange Bowl

When Iowa has the ball

Georgia Tech is average on defense, there's simply no way around that fact. The Yellow Jackets are sixth in the Atlantic Coast Conference in just about every category that matters, including pass, rush, total and scoring defense. What does that mean against a team from the Big Ten? You have to question whether or not the Jackets will stand up to an occasionally bruising offensive line, especially given the Champs Sports Bowl. That game pitted Wisconsin and a bruising O-line against Miami (Fla.), a speedy defensive outfit. The Badgers muscled to a 20-14 victory.

Tech's best foot forward is defensive end Derrick Morgan, a 6-foot-4, 272-pound edge rusher. He was a first-team all-American, led the ACC with 12.5 sacks and finished second in the conference with 18 tackles for loss.

Morgan, a junior, is universally loved by NFL scouting dotcom-ers. ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay has the Coatsville, Pa., native going No. 3 in a 2010 mock draft. In the same mock up, McShay has Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga going No. 20 to the New York Jets. Will they met up tonight? Probably some, but Tech defensive coordinator Dave Wommack is more likely to move around Morgan, looking for the optimal matchup. Iowa is doing some tinkering here. Right tackle Kyle Calloway, who's started 36 games at tackle, might slide inside to guard with freshman Riley Reiff going to tackle. The move would be to fight the sheer bulk of D-tackle T.J. Barnes, a 6-7, 314-pound monster.

Morgan gives Tech a fighting chance up front, but Tech's secondary is shaky, allowing quarterbacks to complete 61.8 percent of their passes (11th in the ACC) with 21 TD passes allowed. Rover Morgan Burnett (6-1, 210) leads with four interceptions. He's also Tech's big hitter in the backfield. Quarterbacks have been efficient against the Jackets with a 135.8 pass efficiency (compare that to the Hawkeyes' 91.9, which is fourth in the nation). Corner Mario Butler (6-1, 182) has allowed a few big plays this season. The other corner is up in the air between Jerrard Tarrant (6-0, 202) and Rashaad Reid (5-10, 185). Reid has started at both corner and free safety.

The linebackers are led by Brad Jefferson's 90 tackles. He's also second on the team with eight tackles for loss.

Everyone Georgia Tech knows the ugly stat from the Jacket's final two games of the season, 662 rushing yards in a loss to Georgia and a victory over Clemson. Coach Paul Johnson expects improvement. Expect the linebackers to play run-first, testing the health of Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi.

That's the real question mark for Iowa's offense - how rusty is Stanzi? He missed Iowa's final two games after a high-ankle sprain against Northwestern on Nov. 7. He had surgery on the Monday after the injury and started practicing again in mid-December. Everyone says all systems go, but Stanzi did sit out some practice this week. Probably a precaution, but who really knows.

A big part of Iowa's offense is the play-action passing game. Stanzi was hurt on a naked bootleg, a play he will most likely be asked to run tonight. He says there's no fear factor and believes the ankle will hold up.

But let's face it, even a healthy Stanzi had unsteady moments, finishing the season with 16 interceptions. Offensive coordinator Ken O'Keefe mentioned it in December. Stanzi also acknowledged decision making is a problem.

Iowa's offensive injuries didn't end with Stanzi. The last we saw of running back Adam Robinson, Iowa's leading rusher with 775 yards, he limped off the field in the victory over Minnesota, aggravating the high-ankle sprain he suffered against Michigan State. This week, he's been coming off the practice field with a harness on his left shoulder. Last we saw of running back Brandon Wegher, he was being held together by athletics tape and cortisone shots, fighting through an intercostal rib injury. He's looked healthy this week.

Iowa's receivers have been asked to make plays this season. Iowa's offense went for more big plays in the passing game than it has since maybe 2004, when it had no running backs. Erik Campbell's group has come through.

Wide receivers Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos complement each other. Tight end Tony Moeaki has had a quiet few weeks, but will need to be a factor against Tech's linebackers.

Advantage: Iowa

When Georgia Tech has the ball

Georgia Tech's triple-option offense is run-first. Jonathan Dwyer (6-0, 235) is the workhorse heavyweight, as the B-back. He averaged 6.1 yards a carry and scored 14 TDs. There is one “but” here. In Tech's two losses, Miami (33-17) and Georgia (30-24), Dwyer was held to 7 and 33 yards, respectively. A-backs Roddy Jones (5-9, 195) and Anthony Allen (6-0, 231) also help fuel the nation's No. 2 rushing offense (307.15 yards a game). Allen averages a nutty 9.8 yards a carry. Jones checks in at 6.5. Jones is the quick back with moves; Allen is a Shonn Greene-type with power and speed. Quarterback Josh Nesbitt will pass the 1,000-yard mark (991) in this game. He leads Tech with 18 TDs.

Nesbitt (6-1, 214) makes the “flexbone” work. This will put defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Broderick Binns in the crosshairs. For the most part, the Jackets offensive tackles generally release up to the linebackers and safeties, allowing Nesbitt read the reaction of the strongside defensive end. If the end attacks, Nesbitt hands the ball to Dwyer or keeps it and follows Dwyer into the hole. If the end collapses inside, Nesbitt will keep the ball and attack the perimeter. He can pitch the ball or try to get to the edge himself. Essentially, Tech runs away from the defensive end and sets up safeties and linebackers for cut blocks.

But that's not all Tech's offense can do. Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (6-3, 229) is a dangerous vertical threat. He led the ACC with 1,154 receiving yards, with an eye-popping 25.1 yards a catch. That screams vertical threat, but he's also powerful enough to swat cornerbacks off his hip in one-on-one coverage. Iowa's defensive backs have the “don't get beat behind” drilled into their heads, but with Tech running the ball 57.7 times a game, the challenge is going to be resisting the the urge to play run-first. Thomas has the size, speed and body control that will force Iowa's corners Amari Spievey and Shaun Prater to pay respect. Spievey may or may not be mulling an early jump to the NFL (he's a junior). If he is, this would be the game to come up with some solid tape. Scouts will be watching, and Thomas is the best wideout Iowa has faced this season.

The Hawkeyes are geared for the cut blocks that are coming their way. It's what Tech does. The technique allows it to create lanes and keeps traffic off runners. The Hawkeyes haven't seen this concentrated scheme of cut blocks since Glen Mason's running game at Minnesota. It's been a point of emphasis in practice, with several D-linemen saying they've gone at it to the point of tension. We'll see.

But notice Tech's leading rusher is built for between the tackles. That's where Iowa's strength lies. The Hawkeyes are led by senior linebackers A.J. Edds and Pat Angerer. Tackles Karl Klug and Christian Ballard have been underrated this season. Their athleticism should help them play off the cut blocks coming their way.

Will Tech be able to move the chains against a defense that's been pretty heady and that's led by a veteran linebackers corps? The closest example of the triple option the Hawkeyes have seen is Illinois 2007, a game that Iowa won at Kinnick. Just food for thought.

Advantage: Push

Special teams

Tech kicker Scott Blair is a strength. He made 14 of 19 this season, including 5 of 6 from 40 to 49 yards with a long of 49. He's hot, too. In the ACC championship game on Dec. 5, he hit 4 of 4 field goals, including the 49-yarder, and finished with a career-high 15 points and an ACC title game record four field goals. He was the hero of the 30-27 victory over Clemson on Sept. 10. He threw a 34-yard TD pass to Thomas and kicked the 36-yard game-winner with 57 seconds left.

Partly because Tech has attempted to convert fourth downs 26 times this season (compared to 10 for the Hawkeyes), punter Chandler Anderson hasn't attempted a punt since Nov. 14. Jerrard Tarrant is a weapon on punt return, with a 14.3-yard average and two TD returns this season on 19 returns. Kick returner Orwin Smith averages 24.3 yards an attempt.

Iowa's kick return finally broke through after 242 straight kicks without a TD return with Johnson-Koulianos' 99-yard return at Ohio State. He seems to have a knack for the job. Wide receiver Colin Sandeman is a steady presence on punt return and could be more of a weapon more time has passed since the nasty concussion he suffered at Michigan State on Oct. 24.

Kicker Daniel Murray made three of his last four to end the season, but the 22-yard miss at Ohio State (a 27-24 loss) still hangs in the air. He was unsteady before finding a rhythm at the end.

Advantage: Georgia Tech

The Scoreboard

Iowa can with this with its offensive line. The health of running backs Robinson and Wegher might be more important than Stanzi, but if they're 100 percent, Iowa's O-line has a chance to punch out Tech. The longer Iowa can sustain drives, the fewer chances the “flexbone” will get to work its magic. Defensive coordinator Norm Parker has had a month to gameplan and he has a smart, experienced group that's physically capable of playing this type of game. Nesbitt still isn't a top-flight passer. He might need to be.

Iowa 31, Georgia Tech 21