The Big Analysis -- Northwestern

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

Northwestern defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz runs a cover 4 defense, which is what Iowa runs. So, it means the Wildcats have a safety and a corner defending a quarter of the field on one side and two defensive backs covering half areas on the other side.

One big difference from the Hawkeyes' version, Northwestern blitzes. Last week against Penn State, safety Hunter Bates (5-10, 180) blitzed and got a sack and a fumble. Middle linebacker Nate Williams (6-1, 230) also picked up a sack off a blitz. Against a zone running scheme like Iowa's, Northwestern's linebackers will be aggressive on run blitzes and hitting gaps with quick reads.

This philosophy shows up in the numbers. Williams and outside linebackers Bryce McNaul (6-3, 230) and Quentin Davie (6-4, 230) combine for 16.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. Williams is second on the team with 62 tackles. McNaul has made plays since entering the starting lineup in the season's third week. Davie is a banner carrier and leads the Wildcats with three interceptions and six QB hurries.

End Vince Browne (6-5, 265) is NU's new Corey Wootton. (You remember Wooton from the Ricky Stanzi ankle shot that basically won the game for the Cats last season.) Browne is very productive with 11.5 tackles for loss and 6.0 sacks. Browne also has two forced fumbles. Tackles Corbin Bryant (6-4, 300) and Jack DiNardo (6-4, 290) have helped NU's defense hold five of nine opponents to less than 100 yards. Still, Penn State hit up NU for 260 rushing yards last week and the Cats allow 4.5 yards a carry, ninth highest in the league.

Northwestern's secondary has been under fire this season. The Cats are 10th in the Big Ten with 247.3, but they do have 11 interceptions, which has helped NU to a plus-6 turnover margin, third in the conference. Safety Brian Peters (6-4, 215) leads NU with 63 tackles. Cornerback Jordan Mabin (5-11, 185) leads NU with 10 pass deflections, with five of those coming in the last two weeks.

Against Penn State, the Cats were victimized by at least six successful screen passes. Also, the secondary coughed up big plays. Corner Mike Bolden was beaten for a 36-yard TD. Mabin and safety David Arnold were hit with pass interference penalties late in the game that fueled PSU's 35-point run to victory.

Iowa's injury bug has moved over to the offense, specifically the offensive line. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz described the depth situation there as "razor thin." Right guard is the hotspot. Junior Adam Gettis (ankle) missed last week. He moved into the starting lineup after freshman Nolan MacMillan went out the last three games with a shoulder/neck issue. Now, it's senior Josh Koeppel, unless either Gettis or MacMillan can make it back.

Wide receiver could be a wild ride this week. 

Running back Adam Robinson (concussion) will return to the lineup this week. His absence took a bite out of Iowa's efficiency in the red zone last week, which fizzled to 0-for-4 on touchdowns.

When Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi went into the shop last winter for conditioning and the fixes, job No. 1 was decision making. Pretty much every number Stanzi has put up this season reflects that work. The obvious is 20 TDs to just three interceptions. The not so obvious is his 68.3 completion percentage, which would be the highest at Iowa since Kyle McCann completed 66.2 percent (167 of 252) in 2001.

"When I study quarterbacks and I look at mistakes they make, I haven't seen one mistake that Ricky has made," NU coach Pat Fitzgerald said. "I haven't watched every rep of the year, but I have not seen him make a poor choice yet and that's what makes him so impressive."

Advantage: Iowa

When the Wildcats have the ball

The beauty of Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa is the decisions he makes. The Wildcats spread-option offense demands internet-fast decisions from its quarterback, whether it be in the zone run scheme or in the passing game, which goes about 5 to 1 in quick passes to downfield throws.

Persa excels in the decisions. The 6-1, 210-pounder sees what he needs to see and makes a decision. It helps him play faster than he really is, but there's no denying his quickness. In tight space, he will beat you because of his quick feet and decisiveness.

Persa's numbers are outstanding. He leads the Big Ten with a 73.4 completion percentage and is second to Michigan's Denard Robinson in total offense with 303.6 yards a game. He's not Denard Robinson with his feet. Persa has averaged more than 4.0 yards a carry in three games this season, but he still leads the Cats in rushing (469) and rushing TDs (8).

Iowa will have to stay in its lanes and shed blocks. The Wildcats have allowed 31 sacks this season and Persa has taken his share of hits. But this shapes up to be a passive performance for Iowa's defense, with focus going toward contain rather than attack. The few times Penn State got push up the middle last week, it blew up everything the Cats wanted to do. Iowa DT Mike Daniels got a promotion this week for that very reason, pressure through the middle of an offense.

The next most effective unit for NU's offense is the receivers. Wide receiver Jeremy Ebert (6-0, 195) is getting first-team all-Big Ten buzz. He's third in the Big Ten with 5.33 receptions a game. He leads the conference with 87.7 yards a game. Ebert has 48 receptions for a Big Ten-high 789 yards and seven TDs.

Drake Dunsmore is called a "superback" in Northwestern's offense. To the rest of the planet, the 6-3, 235-pounder is a pretty good tight end, with 28 catches for 274 yards and four TDs. Mike Trumpy (6-0, 210) has emerged as NU's go-to running back who's not named Dan Persa. Trumpy, nephew of former Cincinnati Bengals tight end Bob Trumpy, averages just 3.88 yards a carry, but does have one of NU's two 100-yard games this season, 110 yards against Indiana.

Do you hang the 31 sacks on NU's offensive line? Probably not. Persa is a running quarterback who'll take a certain amount of tackles for loss, which goes as sacks.

If you want a telling stat for Northwestern, one that certainly gave the Hawkeyes headaches in NU's 17-10 victory at Kinnick last season, look at the Cats' third-down proficiency. NU converts on 34.68 of third downs, good for No. 19 in the country. Last season, the Cats held the ball 34:20 to Iowa's 25:40. Time of possession gets beaten around for what it exactly says about a game, but the 2009 meeting was all about it.

Iowa's D-line had the personnel shakeup this week with Daniels moving in and senior Christian Ballard sliding out to end. Junior Broderick Binns goes to No. 5.

The linebackers continue their navigation of injury. True freshman James Morris remains in the middle. Get used to that. It's going to be that way for three more years. Senior Jeremiha Hunter returned from a knee injury last week at Indiana and broke up a pair of passes. Senior Jeff Tarpinian's stinger still hasn't fully healed, but he's played in passing situations the last two weeks. If he's full go this week -- if -- he's probably the outside linebacker.

The Cats have made a living off the turnover battle in this game, holding a 9-2 edge over the Hawkeyes in their two-game winning streak. Iowa might be geared to take that back, with an offense that values the ball and a defense that has picked up the pace on turnovers, going plus-8 the last four weeks.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

Kicker Stefan Demos has made 12 of 18 attempts for 66.7 percent, ninth in the Big Ten. In a stunning home loss to Purdue, Demos had misses from 41 and 45 in a three-point home loss that might have been the difference in the game. He's made 5 of 8 in his last four games.

Punter Brandon Williams (49) has put 16 of his 42 tries inside the 20. He also has six kicks of 50-plus yards.

Iowa kicker Mike Meyer earned Big Ten special teams player of the week for his 4 of 5 performance at Indiana last week, which included a career-long 42-yarder in the fourth quarter. He also missed a 22-yarder. This season, Meyer is 9 of 11. How does he compare to Lou Groza winner Kate Kaeding as a freshman? Kaeding finished his freshman year 14 of 22 with a long of 49. Kaeding finished with 62 points. Meyer has 48 with four games left, including the bowl.

Look for an elevated role for sophomore Keenan Davis in special teams. He returned a season-high three kicks for 58 yards last week against Indiana. He also could be the No. 2 punt returner.

Advantage: Northwestern

The Scoreboard

Persa excels NU's game of keep away, but will the Cats be able to turn it into points? His quick tempo and decisions make Northwestern's offense a matchup headache for any team. The Wildcats will get their yards today, but will they get their points? Also, in the last two games in this series, Iowa has broken down on offense due to injury. In '08, running back Shonn Greene got knocked out. Last season, Stanzi suffered a high-ankle sprain. Barring a major catastophe (and monitoring a few ongoing health issues), Iowa's offense should be able to keep pace.

Iowa 28, Northwestern 17