The Big Analysis -- Minnesota

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

Only two starters return from the Gophers' 2009 defense and one of those, safety Kim Royston, has yet to play this season after suffering a broken leg in spring football. The other returnee is safety Kyle Theret, so inexperience might have something to do with the 408.0 yards the Gophers are giving up per game.

That's 10 new faces and the results haven't been pretty for co-coordinators Kevin Cosgrove and Ron Lee, former Wisconsin assistants.

Here are the numbers: Minnesota rush defense is the worst in the Big Ten, allowing 200.8 yards a game (104th in the country), 5.4 yards a carry and 29 rushing TDs (tied for worst in the conference). The pass defense is better, ranking sixth, but it's not without its blemishes, allowing a conference-worst 66.7 completion percentage and third-worst 19 TDs. The Gophers allow 6.7 yards a play. Michigan's defense, hands down the Big Ten's worst, allows 6.0 yards a play.

The damage comes in a flurry, because the Gophers are a respectable fourth in time of possession (31:31 a game).

The Gophers showed some signs in their lone Big Ten victory, a 38-34 win over Illinois. They held Illini QB Nathan Scheelhasse to less than 50 percent completion percentage, sacked him three times and intercepted him once, with Troy Stoudermire's pick sealing the deal. They also held the Illini to two giant three-and-outs late in the game.

Of the newbies on defense, junior linebacker Gary Tinsley has been a standout. The 6-1, 225-pound junior holds the team lead in tackles with 86. Against Illinois, he tallied 12 stops and a pair of tackles for loss. He has 1.5 sacks in his last two games and is seventh in the Big Ten with 9.5 tackles for loss.

Nose tackle Jewhan Edwards (6-2, 330) has nine tackles for loss. He and Brandon Kirksey have a combined 69 starts.

This remains an inexperienced, vulnerable unit that will be better for this next season.

In the 20-17 loss to Ohio State, the Hawkeyes faced a defense you could see only scoring 17 points against. The Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in just about every defensive category that matters. But the Hawkeyes scored 18 and 17 against Northwestern. They lived to tell in Bloomington and didn't in Evanston.

The Hawkeyes are officially in a slump.

In his last three starts, QB Ricky Stanzi's yards per attempt -- which basically measures the rewards for the risks of passing -- have gone 8.8, 6.6 and 6.3. For comparison, Stanzi's high of the season was Michigan State, when he logged a 12.7. Stanzi's completion percentage during this stretch is 63 percent. His season percentage is 66.2.

He's been off, just by a little bit but off nonetheless.

Everyone in Kinnick Saturday except for the men in the headsets on the Iowa sideline clamored for freshman running back Marcus Coker. Coker got the start over sophomore Adam Robinson because of an academic suspension and he ran with it. He finished with 70 yards on nine carries against a defense allowing 2.9 yards a carry. 

Everybody gets that wish this week. Coker, a 6-0, 230-pound true freshman, will get his third career start after Robinson suffered his second concussion in less than a month.

The Hawkeyes' offense is in a slump. The elements might be something to contend with, late November in the outdoors of TCF Bank Stadium, but Iowa has enough playmakers to do some damage against the Gophers.

Advantage: Iowa

When the Gophers have the ball

You have to wonder what kind of success senior quarterback Adam Weber could have enjoyed without the annual change in offensive coordinator and philosophy. During his four years as starter -- Weber will make his 50th career start today -- Weber has run the spread, a hybrid offense that was geared to incorporate an element of power running and now and now more of a pro-style attack with his fourth coordinator, Jeff Horton, who now happens to be his head coach. 

At one point, former Minnesota coach Tim Brewster forced Weber to deal with the fact that the staff designed a package for dual-threat quarterback MarQueis Gray, who's now the teams' No. 2 receiver with 39 receptions for 554 yards and five TDs.

In the year of the quarterback in the Big Ten, Weber is hanging in there. His completion rate is the lowest among Big Ten starters at 56.0 percent (192 of 343) and his 9 interceptions are tied for second-worst, but he does have 20 TD passes and can use his feet, sitting fourth in rushing among Big Ten QBs with 133 yards.

Wide receiver Da'Jon McKnight (6-3, 209) leads the Gophers with 46 catches for 705 yards and a Big Ten-leading 10 TD receptions, needing one more to tie UM's school season record. Junior tight end Eric Lair (6-3, 238) is a contributor with 37 catches for 507 yards (13.7 per catch).

Minnesota continues to search for a consistent running game, even though junior DeLeon Eskridge (5-11, 205) seems to have a decent hold on the position now and maybe going into 2011. He leads the Gophers with 603 yards and 6 TDs, but averages just 3.5 yards per carry. Junior Duane Bennett (5-9, 210) still sees touches, averaging 4.2 yards a carry.

But the Gophers' rush offense doesn't strike fear. They are 10th in the league in rushing with 127.9 yards per game, which has gradually shrank from 166.0 in the last five games.

Left tackle Ed Olson (6-7, 305) missed the Illinios game with an injury. At 6-7, 350, senior right tackle Jeff Wills takes a half hour to run around.

The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten in turnover margin at plus-14 (17 interceptions and four fumbles). Cornerback Shaun Prater and safety Brett Greenwood are tied for the Big Ten lead with four interceptions apiece. Cornerback Micah Hyde is tied for third with three.

Of course, if you cut to the chase with Iowa's defense, it's the fourth quarter.

In Iowa's four losses, the defense has allowed a game-winning TD drive in the fourth quarter. It's not just because Iowa is in a 4-3 the entire time. The coaches have pulled a few stops, throwing a dime coverage (with corners Greg Castillo and B.J. Lowery in last week) in the mix.

Every stat the Iowa defense has logged this season -- all good, basically second in the Big Ten -- has become unplugged in the fourth quarter, where Iowa has narrowly outscored opponents 73-72.

The bottomline is Iowa can't get off the field in the fourth. In their four losses, the Hawkeyes have allowed opponents to convert 14 of 23 third and fourth downs in the final quarter. That's 61 percent and that's your kill stat.

Last season, Iowa's defense was fourth-quarter clutch. Maybe this season is the anomaly. The Hawkeyes have today and the bowl game to fix it.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

Junior cornerback/kick returner Troy Stoudermire is now the Big Ten career kickoff return-yardage leader. A 90-yard return against Illinois last time out helped push him in front of Wisconsin's David Gilreath. Stoudermire has 2,920 yards on 114 returns, while Gilreath has 2,866 on 127 returns.

This is a bad matchup for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are No. 86 in the nation in kick coverge, allowing 22.47 yards per return. Against Ohio State last week, Iowa allowed 23.1 yards a return and booted a kickoff out of bounds for a start at the 40.

In 2008, Stoudermire lit up Iowa for 283 return yards, a UM single-game record.

Kicker Eric Ellestad was named kickoff specialist of the week by the College Football Performance Awards website after Illinois, when he averaged 69.0 yards on five kickoffs with four touchbacks. He's 9 of 15 on field goals this season.

UM punter Dan Orseske has had two blocked punts this season.

Yes, freshman Mike Meyer missed a 40-yarder last week that stung, but he's 11 of 14 with 58 points. As a freshman, Nate Kaeding finished 14 of 22 with 62 points.

Advantage: Minnesota

The Scoreboard

These teams have lived in two totally different worlds for the last month or so. The Hawkeyes have run a brutal gauntlet, trying to hang in on the Big Ten title hunt. The Gophers saw their coach get fired and welcomed the infusion of light-hearted touch of Jeff Horton. This week, Iowa has no Big Ten title to think about. The Gophers could put a huge gold star on a "F" grade season. These teams are still living in two different worlds.

At this point, with two losses and a win on a dropped pass, you wonder if the Hawkeyes can get it back. Conversely, you wonder if the Gophers have it at all.

There are no gimmes anymore for the Hawkeyes, but they have enough left in the tank.

Iowa 38, Minnesota 14