The Big Analysis -- Michigan State

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

The Spartans boast a tough, physical front seven, spearheaded by linebacker Greg Jones. Jones (6-1, 228) leads the Big Ten and ranks second in the nation with 12.1 tackles a game. He's a Butkus semifinalist and a Phil Steele midseason All-American. He's as active as any linebacker in the conference, sitting fourth in sacks (5.0) and seventh in tackles for loss (8.5). He leads the Spartans in something called “production points,” which are awarded for being a general defensive pain in the neck. He's tough, physical, active, everything you'd want in a linebacker.

The Spartans are third in the Big Ten against the run (and 19th nationally), allowing only 3.0 yards per carry and 99 yards per game. This doesn't appear to be a favorable matchup for Iowa's streaky rush offense. Further punctuating that point is the Spartans' effort against Michigan, allowing the Wolverines just 28 yards on 28 carries. UM put up 195 rush yards against the Hawkeyes. So, if you're into head-to-head comparisons, that one seems relevant.

Jones is good and fellow strongside linebacker Eric Gordon isn't exactly string cheese. Against Northwestern last week, he collected a career-high 15 tackles (five solo) with 2.5 tackles for loss, including a sack. Defensive tackles Oren Wilson (6-3, 294) and Jerel Worthy (6-3, 292) are your classic Michigan State monster tackles, eating up blockers and space inside.

The Spartans' pass defense seems to be the Achilles' heel. Opponents have completed 61.2 percent of their passes for an average of 235.9 yards a game with 15 TDs and only four interceptions.

MSU defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi will move Jones all over the field, trying to get him different looks. He'll also blitz from every angle and the Spartans lead the Big Ten with 21 sacks. The Spartans' front four, led by senior end Trevor Anderson, has been getting pressure without the blitz, a huge bonus for any defense.

Iowa's running game had a pretty horrible first half at Wisconsin last week. Badgers linebackers keep beating the backside blocking and stuffed outside zone rushes. Iowa ended up with just 23 yards on 14 carries. Iowa went away from the outside and called inside zones in the second half and ended up salvaging the day. No, the final numbers weren't pretty, 39 carries for 65 yards, but the Hawkeyes nearly produced a 100-yard rusher with Adam Robinson's 91 yards, 56 of which came in the fourth quarter, when Iowa pulled away with 10 points.

Coach Kirk Ferentz is determined to stay with the Robinson-Brandon Wegher rotation, even though the numbers support more carries going Robinson's way. Last week it went Robinson 91 and Wegher 1 yard on 11 carries. Possibly, he's tipping off something when he's in the game. Here's what Ferentz said: “If you went back and looked at the tape, (Brandon) didn't have much opportunity. We had some disastrous plays when he was in there from his standpoint. He had no chance of getting it going. I thought it was a reflection on the timing of some things we didn't do well with our execution or things they did. But it wasn't him. He basically had some dead plays that he had to try to execute and he made the best of them.”

Quarterback Ricky Stanzi played his best - and cleanest - game of the year against Wisconsin. The numbers were one thing (17 of 23 for 218 yards and a TD), but the two throws to tight end Tony Moeaki showed touch and guts and brains. His second half pass efficiency (215) spurred Iowa's comeback.

The passing game - Stanzi, Moeaki and wide receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos - is the spine of the offense right now. Whatever the running game can add is a bonus. Iowa's offense will survive or fail on the passing game.

Advantage: Even

When the Spartans have the ball

Sophomore quarterback Kirk Cousins went start to finish last week against Northwestern and seems to be taking the reins in Michigan State's QB derby. Sophomore Keith Nichol has been slowed the past couple weeks with an elbow injury and his status for today is up in the air. Cousins is the pocket passer compared to the more athletic Nichol. In his first full game, he guided the Spartans to a 24-14 victory with 21 of 31 for 281 yards, two TDs and no interceptions. He's completing 63.5 percent of his passes for nine TDs and just five interceptions.

Cousins leads the Big Ten and is 25th nationally in pass efficiency (146.5).

The Spartans had to replace three starters on the offensive line after last season. Those changes, plus the departure of tailback Javon Ringer, have taken a bit of a bite out of the running game, which generates 136.4 yards per game. True freshman Larry Caper leads MSU with 338 yards (4.4 yards a carry). Last week, coach Mark Dantonio made the executive decision to pull the red-shirt off freshman Edwin Baker, who sparked the Spartans with 43 yards.

Caper was the clear feature back, but will likely be sharing with Baker this week. You pull a red-shirt in week seven, you mean it.

The Spartans have allowed just six sacks (best in the Big Ten) and that could be what gets the Hawkeyes.

Wide receiver Blair White (6-2, 200) is coming off a “Big Ten player of the week performance” against Northwestern with 12 catches for 186 yards and two TDs. Iowa held him in check last season (three for 38), but he's among the Big Ten's leading receivers with 45 catches for 635 yards and six TDs. Sophomore B.J. Cunningham (6-2 212) has 30 catches for 373 yards and three scores. Junior Mark Dell, who missed the first two games because of a shoulder injury, has 15 catches for 242 yards (16.1 per catch).

When everyone on Iowa's defense gets on the same page, it's a wrecking ball. Check the second half against Wisconsin last week. The Hawkeyes' run defense lost gap discipline in the first half and found itself gouged for 89 yards by the Badgers. The Hawkeyes shored up the gap control and held the Badgers to minus-2 rushing in the second half. Yes, Clay did something to his ankle during the game. That had something to do with it. But the minus-2 had just as much to do with what Iowa's D-line did to Wisconsin's O-line. The push wasn't there. The contain was.

The mission this week is to make MSU one-dimensional. If Iowa stops the rush - Iowa held MSU to 91 rush last season - pressure goes to Cousins. He hasn't seen a secondary like Iowa's.

Run the numbers on Iowa's secondary - No. 1 in the nation with 15 interceptions, fifth in pass efficiency defense (88.7) and 16th in overall pass defense. The Hawkeyes have 15 interceptions and have been credited with 40 pass breakups. That's 40 passes Iowa's defense has gotten its hands on this season, or nearly six a game. That's tenacious D.

A lot of credit goes to Iowa's linebackers for this. Pat Angerer, A.J. Edds and Jeremiha Hunter have been fantastic with depth in their drops this season. This narrows the margin of error for quarterbacks. Any inaccuracies are intercepted or tipped and then intercepted.

Iowa's corners Amari Spievey and Shaun Prater are playing at a high level. Wisconsin took it at Spievey last week and he picked off two passes. Of course, Iowa's safeties Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood have eight interceptions between them.

If Iowa's front four generates pressure on a sophomore quarterback playing in front of a home crowd that's read headlines calling the Spartans Big Ten contenders all week, this could be shaky. No pressure, Cousins has the arm and receivers to pick apart the Hawkeyes.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

Michigan State carries an outstanding tandem in kicker Brett Swenson and punter Aaron Bates. Swenson, whose three field goals 29, 32 and 25) put MSU over the top against Iowa last season, is 10 of 11 this year. His only miss came from 51 yards and since that he's hit five straight. Swenson and Brett Conroy have split kickoffs but have recorded only two touchback in 39 kicks.

Bates is fifth in the Big Ten in punting with a 42.6-yard average, and 13 of his 30 punts have been placed inside the opponents' 20. The Hawkeyes have held opponents to a 3.5-yard average on punt returns, but Michigan State sophomore Keshawn Martin could test that unit. He's No. 2 in the Big Ten with a 9.2-yard average.

Since missing a 28-yarder against Arkansas State, junior kicker Daniel Murray has straightend out. Since, he's made six of seven including three straight. He's now made a respectable 5 of 7 from 40-49 yards this season. The buzz surrounding punter Ryan Donahue has died down - sixth in the Big Ten with a 42.0 average - but still less than half of his 32 punts (15) have been returned. Twenty-three of the 32 have either been fair caught or downed inside the opponents' 20.

The Hawkeyes have gone 228 kickoffs without returning one for a touchdown. The last one was C.J. Jones' 100-yard return in the 2003 Orange Bowl.

Advantage: Michigan State

The Scoreboard

The Hawkeyes haven't won at Spartan Stadium since 1995. Ferentz is 0-for-4 there, including a 49-3 spanking when the Spartans and Hawkeyes were from different planets in 1999. That said, Iowa has found some sort of Zen-like calm on the road this season. Turnovers have been the deal, with taking three interceptions out of Wisconsin last week and four take-aways at Penn State. Can a team depend on turnovers like this? Probably not, but it's worked so far.

Iowa 21, Michigan State 20