The Big Analysis -- Michigan State

When Iowa has the ball

Linebacker Greg Jones leads the Big Ten in linebacker for the second consecutive season. He's fifth in the Big Ten with 8.6 tackles a game, down from the astounding 12.1 he had going at the time the Spartans played Iowa last season. Still, the 6-foot-1, 240-pounder leads the Spartans in tackles (69) and is second in tackles for loss (5.0). He also has two interceptions and four passes defended. Also, he is second in the Big Ten with three forced fumbles.

He's being promoted heavily by MSU for postseason awards with his own website (GregJones53.com). A midseason all-American on SI.com, Jones also leads the Spartans (161) in something called “production points,” which are awarded for being a general defensive pain in the neck. He's tough, physical, active, everything you'd want in a linebacker.

But he's not doing it all by himself.

The Spartans secondary might be the most improved unit in the Big Ten. They rank among the NCAA FBS leaders in passes defended (tied for fourth with 47) and interceptions (tied for fifth with 13). Sophomore cornerback Johnny Adams leads MSU with three interceptions and is tied with strong safety Marcus Hyde, brother of Iowa CB Micah Hyde, with seven passes defended.

The Spartans front four is a little bit dinged. Both nosetackles Kevin Pickelman (6-4, 285 junior) and Blake Treadwell (6-3, 277 sophomore) were somewhat limited in the Spartans' narrow victory at Northwestern last week. But even so, this is a formidable unit, led by tackle Jerel Worthy's (6-3, 305 sophomore) four tackles for loss and three sacks. MSU also is wallpapered in depth on the ends, with Tyler Hoover (6-7, 260 sophomore) and Jonathan Strayhorn (6-0, 270 junior) combining for 6.5 sacks.

Michigan State ranks second in the Big Ten and No. 20 (tied) in the NCAA FBS in red-zone defense, allowing opponents score on 75 percent of their trips inside the Spartan 20-yard line (21-of-28, including 14 touchdowns and seven field goals). MSU's defense has allowed only seven gains of 30-plus yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and passing plays plus kickoff and punt returns) this season. That total ranks among the fewest allowed in the Big Ten (second behind Ohio State's four) and the NCAA FBS (tied for eighth).

The Spartans' defense has a lot, but it might not have star cornerback Chris L. Rucker, who was released Thursday after serving eight days in county jail. He was arrested after MSU's win over Michigan for an OWI that was later reduced to misdemeanor reckless driving. It was a probation violation. He was convicted of misdemeanor assault in connection with a November 2009 fight that involved several MSU football players.

True freshman Darqueze Dennard is listed as Rucker's replacement. He left MSU's game last week, but returned.

MSU defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi spent the first three quarters of the Northwestern game in the pressbox. He got angry and went down on the field for the fourth quarter.

Iowa's offense remains it's strength, and quarterback Ricky Stanzi is the scaffolding.

The senior is No. 2 in the nation in pass efficiency with a 174.88. For the first time this season, his yards per attempt dipped to less than 10 yards (.9.52), but still, he has 16 TD passes and just two interceptions. According to the website Hawkeye Football History, Stanzi has gone 78 attempts since his last interception, the 2nd-longest streak of his career (91) and second longest active streak in the Big Ten.

Running back Adam Robinson continues to brush off doubters. Yes, he's only 5-9, 200 pounds, but he was the premier running back in last week's game against Wisconsin, gaining 114 yards and scoring a TD. His durability remains something to marvel at and intact. He is No. 2 in the Big Ten with 152 carries. That's 58.2% of Iowa's rushes this season, the sixth highest precentage in FBS.

Iowa's O-line had a strong performance against Wisconsin. The Badgers' front seven isn't Michigan State's. The Spartans have more quality personnel around Jones than the Badgers had around DE J.J. Watt. 

The Spartans caught slippery NU QB Dan Persa for seven sacks last week, including two by Worthy.

Advantage: Push

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State's offense was just sort of finding itself last season.

Junior Kirk Cousins wasn't really the clear No. 1 quarterback. He was locked in a playing-time struggle with junior Keith Nichol. This year, Cousins is the man, something he punctuated with last week's Big Ten offensive player of the week performance against Northwestern. This season, Cousins is the man and he's throwing to Nichol, who's carved out a nice role for himself as a wide receiving, grabbing 14 passes for 205 yards and a TD.

Cousins has been solid to date with a completion rate of 66.5 percent. He averages 243.5 passing yards a game with 14 TDs and just four interceptions. When Northwestern went soft zone last week, Cousins went wild, matching or surpassing career highs with 29 completions, 43 attempts and three TD passes in the Spartans' 35-27 victory at Northwestern. The Spartans trailed 17-0 in the first half and 27-21 with 9:47 remaining. Cousins' final TD pass gave the Spartans their first lead with two minutes left.

The trio of Keshawn Martin, B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell have combined for 88 receptions, 1,380 yards and 10 touchdowns. They are veteran and they are dangerous, especially Martin, who leads the Big Ten with 15.0 yard a punt return. He sat out a lot of the second half last week after icing his right foot. The ESPN broadcast said it was an injury to his right achilles. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio wouldn't rule him out for today's game.

Just as MSU QB has found an identity, the Spartan's running game knows exactly what it is this season.

The Spartans can run the ball with authority this season, which makes their offense balanced and dangerous. Through eight games, the Spartans average 193.5 yards a game. It's impressive. It's nearly 40 yards more a game than the Hawkeyes' 159.1. But upon further review, it's on a downward slide. Through four games, the Spartans were at 231.5 rushing yards a game. The last two weeks, MSU has produced a couple duds even in victory. Illinois held MSU to 93 rushing yards and Northwestern held it to 105.

Sophomore Edwin Baker, the No. 1 tailback, has made the improvement you'd expect to see from freshman to sophomore. He averages a nutty 6.8 yards on 115 carries, even after weeks of 23 (vs. Illinois) and 73 (vs. Northwestern). His 779 yards are third in the Big Ten and he has seven TDs. Freshman Le'Veon Bell has been outstanding, too, with 6.4 yards a carry and eight TDs.

Iowa's defense is in kind of a last stand mode. They won't admit it, but the last two weeks say something isn't working for a defense that had a lot of all-something slapped on it during the national list portion of the season.

Iowa has allowed 59 points the last two weeks (28 against Michigan and a losing 31 vs. Wisconsin). That's the worst two-game stretch for the Hawkeyes since 50 between Arkansas State and Michigan last season.

Iowa's pass coverage is officially in trouble. This includes the linebackers, a unit that could be without seniors Jeff Tarpinian (stinger) and Jeremiha Hunter (knee) this week. In the final moments against Wisconsin, true freshman James Morris and redshirt freshman Shane DiBona were the inside linebackers. That wasn't a combo anyone saw coming back in August.

Opponents are completing 60.3 percent against the Hawkeyes, which is middle of the road in the Big Ten. During the Ferentz era, it's the second worst, behind only 62 percent in 2005, according to Hawkeye Football History.

This is a last stand for Iowa's championship hopes in the Big Ten. It's the last stand for Iowa's defense to be a positive force in a championship drive. 

Advantage: Push

Special teams

The only factor that gets Iowa's special teams the nod until at the Minnesota game is when the calendar turns to 2011.

Iowa's special teams are abysmal. The coup de grace was the fake punt Wisconsin pulled against the Hawkeyes last week. It was fourth-and-4. Badgers punter Brad Nortman took the snap, pulled the ball down and rushed up the middle for 17 yards and a first down. This eventually bloomed into Wisconsin's game-winning TD.

Ferentz said this week he wished they called a "punt safe," but, also, two players were assigned to watch the punter and make sure the ball went off his foot. That did not happen. Two players rushed from the outside and the middle was wide open. Brutal breakdown that, arguably, cost the Hawkeyes the game.

Michigan State's special teams is basically the cast of "Jackass." The Spartans will do anything at anytime. Whatever it takes for the thrill.

Against Notre Dame, the Spartans won in overtime on a fake field goal. Dantonio had a heart attack not too long afterward. Don't think those aren't connected in some way.

Trailing against Northwestern, punter Aaron Bates threw a pop fly to Bennie Fowler for a first down on a fake punt going into a fourth-and-11. The drive turned into points and the Spartans ended up with their miracle season still in one piece.

Iowa left four points on the Kinnick turf almost literally last week. The Hawkeyes had a PAT blocked and had a 30-yard field goal short circuit because of holder/punter Ryan Donahue's nerve.

Meanwhile, MSU's sophomore kicker Dan Conroy missed his first field goal of his career last week.  His 14 consecutive field goals made to open his career marked the best start in MSU history; it also ranked as the second-longest streak in MSU history overall (record: 15 by Brett Swenson in 2008).

Iowa's coverage units could be tested by Martin, if he's available. He is capable of breaking a big return at any time.

Iowa has been fooled too many times on special teams this season to think it can be sound in this area until 2011.

Advantage: Michigan State

The Scoreboard

Iowa is Michigan State's whole season. The Spartans beat Iowa, they've got dog's lunch Minnesota in East Lansing, idle week, not-for-real Purdue at East Lansing and then travel to faux rival Penn State, where the Spartans and Lions face off for the Land Grant Trophy.

You could make a clear-headed argument that Michigan State is playing for a shot at the national championship today in Kinnick Stadium.

Ball's in Iowa's court. The Hawkeyes are playing for their Big Ten championship hopes. Lose today, they look at the possibility of being the Big Ten's inaugural entrant in the Gator Bowl.

That's in Jacksonville, Fla. That wouldn't even be a door prize in a season that began with dreams of Pasadena.

The ball is in the Hawkeyes' court. Up to them. 

Michigan State 28, Iowa 24