The Big Analysis -- Indiana

When Iowa has the ball

Indiana's two defensive ends, Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton, are the Hoosiers' best chance for victory. If they can get consistent pressure on Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi, they'll shake up Iowa's offense, which will be adjusting to life without leading rusher Adam Robinson and guard Dace Richardson.

In the Hoosiers' victory over Akron, the front four provided pressure and IU pulled four interceptions out of the game. So, there's precedent for IU's defense leading it to victory. Also, there's precedent for Kirlew, fourth in the Big Ten in sacks (5.5) and tackles for loss (13.5), and Middleton (3.0 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) ruining Iowa at Kinnick Stadium, nonetheless. In 2007, during the Hoosiers, 38-20 gutting of Iowa, IU came up with nine sacks, including 3.5 from Kirlew and 2.5 from Middleton. Back then, Iowa senior right tackle Kyle Calloway was in his first season as a starter. So, he'll probably have some motivation here, even though IU will move Kirlew all over the line to find a matchup.

Indiana has gone through five defensive tackles this season, before settling on red-shirt freshman Larry Black Jr. and true freshman Adam Replogle. The depth is also red-shirt freshmen and a converted O-linemen. So, there has been some shifting and newness upfront.

Middle linebacker Matt Mayberry leads the Hoosiers with 71 tackles. The secondary is a question mark for this team. Safeties Nick Polk and Austin Thomas have good size and can hit, but also have giving up big plays. The corners are an interesting mix. Senior Ray Fisher made the switch from wide receiver during the spring. Junior Adrian Burks is slated to make his first career start today, but there is uncertainty. Former starter Richard Council is also in the mix, IU coach Bill Lynch said. Uncertainty is a bad thing for the worst pass defense unit in the Big Ten, allowing 7.6 yards a pass.

The IU defense is coming off a massive collapse at Northwestern last week, surrendering a 25-point lead in a 29-28 defeat. In the fourth quarter, Indiana gave up an 11-play, 98-yard drive for a TD and a 13-play, 65-yard drive that ended with the game-winning field goal.

“We had a fourth-and-three and ran a base route and didn't convert,” Lynch said. “We turned the ball over and Northwestern got a fourth-and-three and ran the exact same route and converted. They executed and we didn't.”

Iowa goes for win No. 9 without Robinson, who suffered a high-ankle sprain against Michigan State last week. This is a big deal. Robinson earned a high-level of trust (no fumbles) and showed enough athleticism and toughness to make fans believe Iowa could get through a season in which it lost a Doak Walker Award winner (Shonn Greene would've been a senior if he hadn't left a year early for the draft) and the heir apparent (Jewel Hampton, torn ACL in June). He averaged 4.7 yards a carry and now he's out until maybe the bowl game.

Iowa's running game is on vapors with true freshman Brandon Wegher the top remaining option. He averages 3.7 yards a carry and has trended downward, as far as rushing the ball goes, the last three weeks, gaining 52 yards on 30 carries (1.73 yards per rush).

Iowa also lost Richardson, but that blow is somewhat cushioned by junior Julian Vandervelde, who moves back into the starting lineup. Wide receiver Colin Sandeman (concussion) could also be out this week, but his loss will mostly be felt on punt return.

Of course, this puts tons more pressure on quarterback Ricky Stanzi, who put together last week's 70-yard, 1:37 drive that ended with a slant pass to wide receiver Marvin McNutt as time ran out. The junior has cleaned up his play the last two games. Since being picked off on the first throw against Michigan, Stanzi has thrown 87 passes without a pick.

Robinson's injury will certainly twist the balance Iowa's offense achieved (290 run, 244 pass). Will there be more five-wide spread, which is something the Hawkeyes have run with Wegher in the slot? Probably not a lot more, but Robinson's injury calls for creativity.

Advantage: Iowa

When Indiana has the ball

Kellen Lewis was Indiana's best offensive player the last two seasons, but he violated team rules and was dismissed. The job now belongs to Ben Chappell, who has assumed Indiana's “pistol” formation and is sort of bobbing along, completing 63 percent of his passes with a 126.29 efficiency and eight TD passes to seven interceptions.

Chappell is a big QB with a with a big arm. He won't just dink and dunk out of the spread. He'll try to stretch the defense throwing it down the field, and he has some talented targets.

The skill position talent at Indiana is better than last year, with the rise of red-shirt freshman tailback Darius Willis (6-0, 219).

The Indianapolis native added his second 100-yard game, his second two-touchdown contest and his second 70-plus yard rushing score at Northwestern last weekend. Willis got the corner and ran 70 yards on IU's first play, the first time since Nov. 6, 2004, the Hoosiers scored on their first play from scrimmage. He added a 3-yard touchdown in the second quarter and finished with 103 yards on 14 carries (7.4 average).

Willis leads the team with 405 yards, five touchdowns, a 5.3 average and 77 attempts. He sits fifth in the Big Ten with 67.5 yards per game and is fourth in league games only with 84.0 yards each time out.

Sophomore wide receiver Tandon Doss has shot onto the Hoosiers' depth chart with 54 catches for 716 yards and two TDs. Doss (6-3) paired with Demario Belcher (6-5) and Terrance Turner (6-3), the Hoosiers' receivers present potential matchup problems.

The offensive line returns four starters from the 2008 unit, with senior right tackle Roger Saffold the standout. The Hoosiers have allowed just nine sacks this season, tied for best in the Big Ten and 20th nationally.

The Hoosiers offense uses a lot of misdirection, wide receiver rushes and reverses as a part of their spread package. The Hoosiers' pistol formation has been written about quite a bit. It's an element of what they do, but it's not the base. It starts Willis downhill, which has been a good thing for IU. IU also runs a version of “the Wildcat,” with speedy Mitchell Evans at QB. Not a lot of mystery to IU's version of the wildcat. Mitchell has rushed 27 times (4.9 a carry) and has thrown just seven.

The Hawkeyes paid a heavy toll with injuries at Michigan State, but they dodged a big one that helps them stay who they are.

Safety Brett Greenwood left the game on a cart after a helmet-to-helmet collision with teammate Tyler Sash. Ferentz said this week that Greenwood was sore, but good for this week's game. Greenwood's role is huge in getting the secondary into position out on the field. He's also playing at an extremely high level this season, with three interceptions.

With Greenwood, the Hawkeyes' defense is still the Hawkeyes' defense. Iowa's spine this season has been the defense and it should continue this week.

Kind of lost in the din of Stanzi-McNutt was the fact that the Hawkeyes rediscovered their pass rush, picking up four sacks at Michigan State. DE Adrian Clayborn had two of those, with DE Broderick Binns and DT Christian Ballard getting one apiece. Iowa doesn't move D-linemen around pre-snap, instead running a lot of twists. Iowa doesn't want this offense to find a rhythm. IU has some jet propulsion in Willis and Doss.

Sophomore cornerback Shaun Prater has gotten better and better every week. Opponents are now trying all-Big Ten caliber CB Amari Spievey. That speaks to Prater's improvement. He had six tackles and a breakup at MSU.

After allowing 195 rushing yards against Michigan, Iowa held Wisconsin (87) and MSU (85) to less than 100. Iowa lost outside contain against MSU's Edwin Baker for a 37-yard gain last week, but the longest run against Iowa before that and after a 58-yarder against Arizona was only 26. The point is the Hawkeyes can contain. That'll be what wins the game this week.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

Ray Fisher became the second kick returner in IU history (Marcus Thigpen, three in 2006) to return two kickoffs in one season when he scored from 93 yards at Northwestern last weekend. He also returned the opening kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown at Akron, the first by an Indiana player since James Bailey returned one 91 yards at Northwestern in 2007. It was the first time in school history that a Hoosier returned the opening kickoff for a score and it was the first of Fisher's career. Fisher leads the Big Ten and ranks fourth nationally averaging 38.1 yards per kick return with 610 yards on 16 returns. He is on pace to break Thipgen's school mark for season average of 30.1 (2006) and Derin Graham's single-season record of 897 yards (2000).

On the flip side last week, IU punter Chris Hagerup had a punt blocked for a safety and kicker Nick Freeland (11 of 18 with a long of 38 this season) missed a 59-yarder as time expired.

The Hawkeyes will likely be looking at Sash or Spievey for punt returns this week. At MSU, Sandeman suffered a concussion and is likely out this week. Kicker Daniel Murray has made six straight field goals.

Advantage: Iowa

The Scoreboard

Yes, Iowa lost its top running back, but the defense is intact. The defense is not only intact, it's really hitting its stride and is engaged in a championship run. On offense, it's not a question of whether Wegher can carry Iowa. It's more how can Iowa best use its assets, which include Ricky Stanzi, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Tony Moeaki and Wegher. Iowa's offense from here on out is a practice in asset management.

Iowa 28, Indiana 17