Setting the Rose Bowl percentages for the Big Ten's four contenders

This is as less scientific than astrology, but it's just for fun and no one's going to get hurt.

What are the chances of the four teams in the chase for the Big Ten's Rose Bowl berth?

MICHIGAN STATE (35 percent)

What it needs: It has to win its remaining two games, at home against Purdue and at Penn State. The game at Penn State looks challenging. Especially since it could be Joe Paterno's home farewell. Although the chances of that are probably less than 40 percent. Or rather, the chances of Paterno announcing that before the game. It's probably more like 4 percent.

What it also needs: It would love to have Iowa beat Ohio State, because if MSU, Wisconsin and Iowa tie at 7-1, Iowa is out of the discussion because of overall records (Iowa lost at Arizona), and MSU beat Wisconsin. If it's MSU, Wisconsin and OSU at 7-1, the Rose Bowl team is the one that is highest in the BCS standings. That won't be the Spartans. And if Wisconsin loses to someone and MSU ties OSU at 7-1, the Buckeyes will go because they didn't play the Spartans and they'll be higher in the BCS standings.

In a nutshell: MSU beats Penn State and Iowa beats Ohio State, and the Spartans are golden. I give that parlay a 34 percent chance, then I tack on 1 percent for the likelihood of Penn State winning at Ohio State this week.

WISCONSIN (34 percent)

What it needs: Has to sweep its remaining three games vs. Indiana, at Michigan, and vs. Northwestern. On paper, this should be done. In reality, the Michigan game would seem to be interesting. If the Wolverines can grab a lead, can Wisconsin be effective coming from behind. It wasn't at Michigan State. It was at Iowa. Then again, Michigan's defense isn't MSU's or Iowa's.

What it also needs: Michigan State to fall at Penn State. If the Badgers win out and the Spartans trip, Wisconsin goes to the Rose Bowl because it will have beaten the OSU-Iowa winner.

Now, if there's a 3-way tie between MSU, Wisconsin and OSU, the team that goes to the Rose Bowl will be the one highest in the BCS standings since they'll all be 11-1 overall. Right now, Wisconsin is No. 7, OSU No. 9 and MSU No. 11. But an Ohio State win at Iowa could jump the Buckeyes over the Badgers. Could, not would.

In a nutshell: Badgers have to turn back Michigan in Ann Arbor and have Ohio State beat Iowa in a less-than-overwhelming fashion.

OHIO STATE (18 percent)

What it needs: Has to win at Iowa, and needs either MSU to win all its games or Wisconsin to lose one.

What it also needs: To jump Wisconsin in the BCS standings if it's a three-way tie between MSU, Wisconsin and OSU. Or, have Wisconsin lose at Michigan AND MSU lose at Penn State.

In a nutshell: Probably needs an impressive win at Iowa.

IOWA (13 percent)

What it needs: Besides winning its remaining games, Wisconsin has to lose one, the most-likely possibility the one at Michigan on Nov. 20. Which will you hear more in Kinnick next Saturday (if Iowa beats Northwestern this week, that is), "Go Hawks!" or "Go Blue!"

In a nutshell: Iowa needed to beat Arizona. But the combination of a Hawkeyes win over Ohio State at home and a Wisconsin road loss to Michigan isn't exactly the impossible dream.

I did this on the fly. If anything is factually wrong here, point it out quickly, I'll fix it, and we'll pretend it was always good.

More importantly, what are your percentages?