Northwestern by 12 over Iowa, and it's not chess

UPDATE: The number on Northwestern-Iowa tumbled all the way from 12 points to 8.5. Read on for this to make sense.

Last week, the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas released 250 pointspreads for 2013 college football games, and I made note of it because it's June and it's as slow a news month as there is in Iowa sports.

I pointed out that Iowa was the underdog in all five games in which it was involved and a number was assigned, and Iowa State was the underdog in six of seven, with the exception being the Iowa game.

That's called cheap heat.

But I went back and looked at the Nugget's June lines of 2012. You set out a bunch of numbers, and some will look brilliant four or five months later. Others will look foolish. I prefer to focus on the foolish.

The only Iowa game that was posted last June was against Iowa State, and the Hawkeyes were a 5-point pick. They lost, 9-6. That was one of the few Iowa-ISU games in which neither side's fans seemed jubilant afterward.

Here are some of the worst of last June's line-settings:

Nebraska -7 at UCLA. The Huskers lost, 36-30.

Oklahoma -14.5 vs. Kansas State. The Sooners lost, 24-19.

Michigan State -5 vs. Ohio State. The Spartans lost, 17-16.

Ohio State -1 vs. Nebraska. The Buckeyes did win, but by 63-38.

Michigan State -3 vs. Notre Dame. The Spartans lost, 20-3.

Oklahoma -11 vs. Notre Dame. The Sooners lost, 30-13.

West Virginia -7.5 vs. Kansas State. The Mountaineers lost, 55-14.

Auburn -3.5 vs. Texas A&M. The Tigers lost, 63-21.

Michigan State -5 vs. Nebraska. The Spartans lost, 28-24.

Alabama -20 vs. Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide lost, 29-24.

Wisconsin -6 vs. Ohio State. The Badgers lost, 21-14.

We may look back and say the same about Northwestern being a 12-point favorite over Iowa this season.

At Sportsmemo.com, a chap who calls himself @Teddy_Covers wrote the following:

... in the first few hours of the feeding frenzy, only four teams were significantly bet in multiple games.

Those four teams included one bet against squad – Northwestern – and three teams that were bet on in multiple contests – Iowa, Arkansas and TCU.  The anti- Northwestern money was no surprise to the Nugget staff.  After going 12-1 ATS last year and returning nearly every key skill position player on both sides of the ball, the Nugget is very high on the Wildcats.  Bettors didn't agree, leading to this classic quote from notable wiseguy Steve Fezzik: “The only sport that Northwestern can be favored by 12 at Iowa is in chess.”

The money coming in support of Iowa, Arkansas and TCU is perfectly understandable as well.  All three programs have been excellent money makers in recent years, but all three suffered majorly disappointing seasons in 2012.  The early money shows that wiseguy bettors expect the Hawkeyes, Hogs and Horned Frogs all to bounce back strong vs. the pointspread in 2013 after last year's combined 10-26 ATS debacle.

That 12-point line was bet all the way down to 8.5 points in the first day the Golden Nugget posted it. There are advantages to living in Las Vegas.