Is the Big 12 going to disintegrate?

An Austin sports columnist thinks so, and sees it happening very soon.  An Oklahoma City sports columnist isn't sure, but definitely sees it as a possibility.

The Austin guy thinks Oklahoma will be the school to pull the trigger and set off a four-team stampede from the Big 12 to the Pac-12 that would also include Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and, yes, Texas.

The Oklahoma City guy says Oklahoma's options "will be formed by circumstance somewhat out of its control."

Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman boldly says in this column that he thinks the four-team exodus I listed will happen, and before October. Bohls wrote:

Your new Pac-16 members: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

The era of the super conference begins.

The Longhorn Network gets folded into the Pac-16 as a downsized regional network, joining the six regional networks that already exist within the conference.

Missouri ends up in the Big Ten or ACC, and Kansas heads to the Big East. If for some inexplicable reason Texas chooses not to pursue Pac-12 membership, look for Texas Tech to be left out and expect the Pac-12 to focus on Kansas and Missouri along with OU and OSU. Don't dawdle, Texas.

Berry Tramel of the Oklahoman isn't anywhere near as certain as Bohls. In this column, he wrote:

So how do the Sooners make a decision about their Big 12 future until they know who the league could even attract?

Not that OU could automatically jump to another conference. The most stable scenario for the Sooners is moving to the Pac-12 with three other Big 12 schools to form an eastern division of a Pac-16.

Many on the OU campus want to see the Sooners join the Pac-12, and Bob Stoops has expressed continual excitement about the prospect.

But does OU want to go to the Pac-12 without Texas? The Sooners like being in a league with the Longhorns - keep your enemies closer, don't you know - but the Longhorn Network collides with the Pac-12's new network, and concessions would have to be made, at least on UT's side and perhaps on both.

Which brings me to the obvious local angle. If the first of the inevitable four superconferences should involve the breakup of the Big 12, Iowa State is in severe trouble. Just like it appeared to be a summer ago when the Pac-10 was vying to become the Pac-16 with a raid of six Big 12 schools that finally was snuffed by Texas. But that was before Texas A&M turned around and decided it wanted to flee for the Southeastern Conference.

If Oklahoma and Texas decide to go west and take Oklahoma State and Texas Tech with them, whither Iowa State? There would be no room in the Big Ten and SEC, that's for sure. The ACC would seem unimaginable for the Big 12 refugees. About the only hope of staying big-time would be if the Big East tried to become a huge football conference and annexed Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, and who knows who else? Missouri presumably can find a good home, perhaps in an ever-growing SEC. Missouri does border SEC states Tennessee and Arkansas. And the SEC is going to need a 14th member real fast or else it will have some scheduling migraines in all sports next year, starting with football.

But if there's no Big 12 next year and the Big East maybe just scoops up Kansas for even more basketball prestige? Then Iowa State is left scrounging for membership in a league such as the Mountain West or Conference USA. It would be a major comedown, and it's certainly not what head coaches Paul Rhoads and Fred Hoiberg signed on for when they began their current jobs at ISU.

Maybe the Big 12 can get proactive in a hurry and start doing some raiding itself. But who can it really raid right now given the league's uncertain future?