History says beware of your No. 9 AP preseason ranking, Iowa fans

The last time a team was ranked No. 9 in Associated Press' preseason college football Top 25 and finished higher than that in the final poll of the season was ... 1996.

That was Ohio State, which went on to an 11-1 season and the No. 2 spot after the season.

But every year since then, there's been nowhere to go but down. Except in 2007, when preseason No. 9 Virginia Tech was postseason No. 9 Virginia Tech after the Hokies' went 11-3.

Not every No. 9 team has had a precipitous drop during the season. Last year, Penn State started the year ranked ninth. It went 11-2 and finished 10th.

Which raises a question to you Hawkeye fans in the crowd. Would you be content with an 11-2 record, a No. 10 ranking, and a Capital One Bowl win if that's what was offered to you right now?

The '08 Clemson team would have, that's for sure. Those Tigers were ninth in the AP preseason rankings. They won seven times, lost six.

The No. 9 preseason teams of 1998, 1999, 2002 and 2003 all finished those seasons out of the Top 25. The '98 team was LSU, which went 4-7. The '99 Ohio State team went from No. 9 at the season's start to 6-6 when it was over.

Does any of this mean anything? Probably not. Except to say preseason polls can't be trusted, and you can't count on a big season just because people say it should be one.

No. 9 preseason teams and how they fared:

2009: Penn State  (11-2, No. 10)

2008: Clemson (7-6, not rated)

2007: Virginia Tech (11-3, No. 9)

2006: California (10-3, No. 14)

2005: Miami (9-3, No. 17)

2004: Ohio State (8-4, No. 20)

2003: Virginia Tech (8-5, not rated)

2002: Washington (7-6, not rated)

2001: Virginia Tech (8-4, No. 18)

2000: Florida (10-3, No. 10)

1999: Ohio State (6-6, not rated)

1998: LSU (4-7, not rated)

1997: Ohio State (10-3, No. 12)

1996: Ohio State (11-1, No. 2)