With boost from women, Carson is new leader in Iowa GOP caucus race

CEDAR RAPIDS - There's a new leader in the Iowa Republican precinct caucus race: retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

Carson topped Donald Trump 28 percent to 20 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday morning. That's a turnaround from September when the New York businessman led Carson 27 percent to 21 percent.

Quinnipiac also found that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is at 13 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is at 10 percent, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush tied at 5 percent and no other candidate topping 3 percent. Another 3 percent were undecided on who they would back in the Feb. 1 first-in-the-nation the caucuses.

A boost from women gave Carson the advantage over Trump, according to Quinnipiac. He wins that segment of likely GOP caucusgoers 33 to 13 percent. Men are nearly evenly divided with 25 percent backing Carson and 24 percent behind Trump.

Trump continues to lead in one important category: the 'no way” list, as 30 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers said they 'would definitely not support” him. Bush is next at 21 percent.

More than eight in 10 - 84 percent - of Republicans say Carson shares their values and 89 percent say he is honest and trustworthy, topping the GOP field for both qualities.

'It's Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

However, he added, Carson's appeal remains somewhat of a mystery.

'As they've been pondering for six months, many in the political world still are trying to understand Carson's appeal and how someone who seems to be operating outside the traditional news media/political environment is doing so well among the most conservative GOP voters,” he said.

'Today's results show his appeal is especially strong among the state's sizable white, evangelical Christian community, among whom Carson is receiving 36 percent, twice Trump's 17 percent,” Brown said.

'Those who know Carson seem to like him,” her continued. 'He has an almost unheard of 84 to 10 percent favorability rating among likely Republican caucusgoers, compared to Trump's 53 to 43 percent rating. To borrow the line from Madison Avenue, ‘Almost no one doesn't like Ben Carson.'”

It might be that 87 percent of the likely GOP caucusgoers believe Carson cares about their needs and problems, the highest mark among any GOP candidate.

On the other hand, Trump gets the highest mark for strong leadership qualities, 80 percent to Carson's 76 percent, but trails Carson and others when voters were asked who has the right experience to be president. Bush topped the field at 76 percent followed by Cruz at 70 percent, Rubio at 69 percent, Carson at 57 percent and Trump at 56 percent.

In terms of favorability, Iowa Republicans give Carson an 84 to 10 percent favorability rating, leading Rubio at 70 to 15 percent, Cruz at 65 to 18 percent and Trump at 53 to 43 percent. Bush has a negative 43 to 51 percent.

Looking at which candidate can best handle different issues, Carson leads in only one area - 31 percent say he can best handle social issues. On handling other issues:

' Trump tops Carson 41 to 12 percent on the economy

' Trump over Carson 32 to 13 percent on taxes

' Trump tops Carson 37 to 9 percent on illegal immigration

' Rubio and Trump are close at 18 to 17 percent, respectively, on foreign policy, with Carson at 9 percent.

From Oct. 14-20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 574 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Live interviewers called landlines and cellphones.