Sanders slips ahead of Clinton among likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers

CEDAR RAPIDS - It's only 1 percentage point, but it's enough to give Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders the lead over Hillary Clinton in a Quinnipiac University Poll released Thursday.

In what the poll's assistant director Peter Brown called a come-from-behind rally, Sanders is the choice of 41 percent of Iowa likely Democratic caucus participants, with 40 percent picking former Secretary of State Clinton. Vice President Joe Biden, who is reportedly considering the race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, was the choice of 12 percent.

It's a dramatic shift from Quinnipiac's July 2 poll that found Clinton with a 53 percent to 33 percent lead over Sanders. Biden polled 7 percent in July.

'Sen. Bernie Sanders has become the Eugene McCarthy of 2016,” Brown said. 'He is the candidate of the Democratic left, against his own party's bosses and their prized presidential candidate, Secretary Hillary Clinton.”

'But unlike the late Sen. McCarthy, who came on strong just before the 1968 primaries, Sen. Sanders has seized the momentum five months before voting begins in Iowa,” Brown said. 'History will eventually tell us whether he has made such a large move too soon.”

McCarthy, a Minnesota senator, challenged President Lyndon Johnson's bid for the Democratic nomination in 1968. Johnson eventually decided not to seek re-election. In the end, it was Vice President Hubert Humphrey who won the nomination.

Quinnipiac found that Sanders and Biden have a higher net favorability ratings than Clinton and higher ratings for honesty and empathy. Clinton has the best scores for leadership and temperament to handle an international crisis.

She also has a wide lead among women, according to the poll of 832 likely Iowa Democratic caucus participants from Aug. 27 to Sept. 8.

Sanders leads Clinton 49 to 28 percent among men, with 16 percent for Biden, while Clinton leads Sanders 49 to 35 percent among women, with 9 percent for Biden.

The overall results, which given the margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, man that either Clinton or Sanders could be leading five months before Iowa's first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses, do raise questions about Clinton's electability, Brown said.

'Although Vice President Joseph Biden received only 12 percent of the vote in this poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers, he still may be a winner in the zero-sum game of presidential primary politics because it further increases questions about Clinton's electability,” he explained.

The poll found former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley getting 3 percent of Iowa likely Democratic caucus participants, former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb with 1 percent and 3 percent undecided.

Clinton has a 76 to 20 percent favorability rating among likely Democratic caucusgoers, as these voters say 64 to 30 percent that she is honest and trustworthy, and 78 to 18 percent that she cares about their needs and problems. She has strong leadership qualities, voters say 92 to 7 percent, and the right temperament and personality to handle an international crisis, voters say 89 to 9 percent.

Sanders gets a 78 to 6 percent favorability rating and likely Democratic Caucusgoers say 86 to 4 percent that he is honest and trustworthy, and 85 to 5 percent that he cares about their needs and problems. Voters say 76 to 9 percent that he has strong leadership qualities and 65 to 15 percent that he has the right temperament and personality to handle an international crisis.

Iowans polled gave Biden a 79 to 9 percent favorability rating. He is honest and trustworthy, voters say 91 to 5 percent, and cares about their needs and problems, voters say 84 to 11 percent. He has strong leadership qualities, voters say 81 to 14 percent and the right temperament and personality for an international crisis, voters say 81 to 13 percent.

For more information, visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.