Sanders maintain Iowa lead, but 19 percent could change their minds

CEDAR RAPIDS — The Iowa Democratic caucus race is frozen with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders holding a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a Quinnipiac University Poll released this morning.

Sanders' 4 percentage point lead as the race enters the finals days of the that will culminate at the Feb. 1 first-in-the-nation caucuses is just within the poll's margin of error and virtually unchanged from Quinnipiac's early January results when Sanders led 49 percent to 44. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley polled 4 percent both months.

Gazette chart

That doesn't mean the race is settled, according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the poll. Only 2 percent of the 606 Iowa likely Democratic caucusgoers by surveyed by live interviewers call landlines and cellphones are undecided, but 19 percent said they might change their mind.

Clinton draws her support from women and older likely caucusgoers, men and younger voters favor Sanders, according to the poll conducted from Jan. 18-24.

'Is this deja vu all over again?' Brown said. 'Who would have thunk it when the campaign began? Secretary Hillary Clinton struggling to keep up with Sen. Bernie Sanders in the final week before the Iowa caucus.'

Clinton led the Quinnipiac poll until September when Sanders slipped ahead 41 percent to 40 percent. The former first lady regained and held the lead through December.

'It must make her think of eight years ago when her failure in Iowa cost her the presidency,' Brown said. In 2008, Clinton led the race until the end when then-Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. John Edwards both topped her.

'Perhaps more than other contests, the Iowa caucuses are all about turnout,' Brown added. 'If those young, very liberal Democratic caucus participants show up Monday and are organized, it will be a good night for Sen. Sanders.'

And winning Iowa would keep the long shot bid alive for Sanders, who is leading Clinton in polls in New Hampshire, the second stop on the nomination trail.

Quinnipiac found Iowa likely Democratic caucusgoers who describe themselves as 'very liberal' back Sanders over Clinton 63 to 32 percent, while self-described 'somewhat liberal' voters back Clinton 53 to 40 percent. 'Moderate' and 'conservative' voters are divided, with 47 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Sanders.

Likely Democratic caucus participants 18 to 44 years old back Sanders over Clinton 78 to 21 percent. Clinton is ahead 53 to 39 percent among voters 45 to 64 years old and 71 to 21 percent among voters over 65 years old.

For 38 percent of the likely Democratic caucusgoers, the economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding their vote. Another 17 percent cited health care and 9 percent listed climate change.

Sanders leads 53 to 41 percent among caucusgoers who cite the economy and jobs as the most important issue, while Clinton leads 50 — 44 percent among those who list health care.

For more on the poll, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/.