Republicans heartened polls show economy still top issue for voters

CEDAR RAPIDS - It's still the economy, stupid.

Koch brothers, climate change, accusations of a scandal-a-week gubernatorial administration and the need for renewable fuels standards in a perfect world may be making headlines. But voters say the economy is their top issue going into the Nov. 4 midterm election.

That doesn't portend a Republican wave election, but Bill McInturff, a leading Republican pollster who, together with Democrat Peter Hart, conducts the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, said it is good news for Republicans who believe economic data and the public's sour perception of the economy are moving voters their direction.

'It's going to be a very good year for Republicans with a 50-50 shot of taking the U.S. Senate,” McInturff said.

Not so fast, counters Celinda Lake of the Democratic Lake Research Partners, which, with the Republican Tarrance Group, conducted the George Washington University Battleground Poll of 1,000 likely voters that was released this week.

It found that Democrats get better marks (43 to 35 percent) than the Republicans for solving problems, standing up for the middle class (54 to 36 percent) and representing middle-class values (52 to 39 percent).

Most attention has focused on the U.S. Senate, where Republicans need a net gain of six seats to gain control. The GOP is expected to pick up a handful of seats in the House it outnumbers Democrats 234 to 201.

Overall, Republicans see their chances of controlling both chambers of Congress improving because polls show voters disapprove of President Barack Obama's handling of the economy. Also, by a 36 to 29 percent margin voters told the Battleground Poll the economy is worse than it was four years ago.

If Republicans can tie Iowa Democratic Senate hopeful U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley to the president's unpopular policies, that may hurt more than actual economic conditions, according to Chris Larimer, an associate professor of political science at University of Northern Iowa.

'It may hurt Braley because he's an incumbent and there is the perception that Congress is not productive,” Larimer said about the economy as an issue in the Iowa Senate contest between Braley and Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst. 'I don't think he can use the economy as an issue to help him.”

But the same voters who decide whether to send Braley or Ernst to the U.S. Senate will be casting ballots in state-level races, too. That makes Larimer wonder how Iowa voters will balance concerns about the national economy with the perception of an Iowa economy that is strong and improving.

In an analysis of several polls earlier this summer, Larimer said the national economy matters in state elections.

'For every 1 percentage decrease in the federal unemployment rate, Branstad's popularity increases, on average, by 12.6 percentage points,” he wrote in his Politics in Iowa blog. The state economy has little impact on federal elections, he added.

Research shows voters do make a distinction depending on the type of race when they are voting, Larimer said. In a Senate race, they consider the national economy, while it's the state economy they base their votes on in a gubernatorial election - such as the matchup between Republican Gov. Terry Branstad and Democratic challenger state Sen. Jack Hatch.

Branstad, in touting the state's improved economic conditions, said Iowa has replenished its emergency funds, reduced unemployment from about 6 percent to 4.5 percent, created nearly 150,000 jobs, cut commercial property taxes by $4.4 billion over 10 years and adjusted the school aid formula.

Hatch disputes those job-creation numbers, saying Iowa has created 76,000 net jobs over the past four years - 34th in the nation. While its jobless rate is one of the best in the country, it also compared relatively well with other states before Branstad took office, he said.

'The economy will work well for Branstad,” Larimer said. 'The trend has been to more improvements, so I'm not sure that it will make that much difference because the narrative (Iowans) have in their mind is a state economy that has been doing well.”

However, he's curious to see how voters will shift gears from the Senate race to the gubernatorial contest 'when you have both races on the same ballot.”

Despite voters' pessimistic view, the U.S. economy has improved, with the unemployment rate dropping from as high as 10 percent in the first year of the Obama presidency to a little over 6 percent now.

But that hasn't registered with many voters. According to a recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, almost half of Americans thought the United States still was in a recession - the deep downturn caused by the financial crisis actually ended five years ago.

Larimer is surprised the president and Democrats aren't talking about the 'massive improvement” based on raw economic data.

'It seems they have shifted straight to talking about the minimum wage and improving wages,” he said. 'They haven't talked about the overall improvement.”

Iowa Democrats seem to be following that playbook, too, with a focus on raising the minimum wage. Republicans are talking about more Iowans working than ever and record capital investment they say will lead to more jobs.