Potential 2016 candidates showing more love to Iowa than New Hampshire

CEDAR RAPIDS - In New Hampshire, an old saying goes, they pick presidents. In Iowa, they pick corn.

This year, however, Iowa is growing a bumper crop of corn and presidential candidates.

And New Hampshire has noticed.

'Showering Iowa with more attention than New Hampshire is actually becoming something of a thing lately,” according to a recent report by James Pindell, who covers politics for WMUR-TV in New Hampshire where the first-in-the-nation presidential primary election is conducted.

Pindell, who became familiar with Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses while earning a degree at Drake University, noted that Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who recently visited the Granite State for two days, had just spent four days in Iowa.

According to Democracy in Action, since the 2012 election potential Republican and Democratic presidential candidates have made 48 visits to Iowa - half again as many as their 31 visits to New Hampshire.

And now Perry's back. Perry, whose five previous visits to Iowa signal his plans to seek the 2016 GOP nomination, will make four stops around Eastern Iowa today. Of course, he's not campaigning for president, but for 1st District Republican U.S. House candidate Rod Blum.

'The candidates want to come in and do favors for people and maybe they will do favors for you” in the run-up to the 2016 precinct caucuses, says Tim Hagle, who teaches political science at University of Iowa.

'It's a twofer,” says Dante Scala, associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. Perry and the other potential 2016ers get exposure in front of party activists and elites alike.

'It's an opportunity to deposit a favor in the favor bank,” Scala said.

Another reason for the more frequent visits may be the makeup of the Republican parties in New Hampshire and Iowa. The Iowa GOP is seen as being dominated by social conservatives, evangelicals, the Christian right. New Hampshire Republicans, not so much.

Candidates on the right might see a vacuum, especially if 2012 caucus winner Rick Santorum doesn't run again, Scala said.

'So there's a gap, and some candidate or candidates will try to fill that void,” he said. 'The place to do that is in Iowa, not New Hampshire.

'If you can attract religious conservatives in Iowa and become their champion, that could echo around the country, especially in the South.”

That's the conventional wisdom, Hagle agreed, but he's not sure it's accurate.

Social conservative certainly are and important - and active - part of the Iowa Republican Party, he said, 'but it's not like they dominate. Mitt Romney may not have won the caucuses, but he came in second twice, and that's pretty good for someone who was seen as being fairly moderate.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is seen as a moderate Republican, seemed to have the inside track in New Hampshire until questions arose about his involvement in lanes closures on the George Washington Bridge that snarled traffic for four days.

Now, Scala said, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, who is described as Romney-like, is attracting attention in New Hampshire.

'No one will mistake him for a very conservative Republican,” Scala says. 'If you're a somewhat conservative Republican or moderate Republican, New Hampshire is the place to start building.”

Fergus Cullen, former New Hampshire GOP chairman, isn't bothered that Iowa is getting more visits than New Hampshire. He is worried that the Iowa GOP is not a 'full-spectrum electorate that is representative of the national GOP.”

Iowa, he said, is in danger of becoming a 'rump caucus for rump candidates trying to win among religious-based social conservatives.”

It's clear some candidates play better in Iowa than New Hampshire and vice versa, said Iowa Republican Chairman Jeff Kaufmann. While Christie has visited once, social conservative Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has visited six times and will return later this month to speak to the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition. Mike Huckabee, Perry and Santorum have each made five visits and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has visited four times.

In New Hampshire, the most frequent visitor is someone few Iowans would count among the presidential contenders - New York U.S. Rep. Peter King, who has not set foot in Iowa.

'They're playing to what they perceive as their strengths,” Kaufmann noted.

New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley doesn't find it surprising that 2016 Republicans are favoring Iowa over the Granite State.

'Looking at some of them and their positions, I can't imagine them being too welcome here,” he said. 'They're the D team, they're not well-known and not polling well, so getting known in Iowa is the first step.”

Besides, Buckley added, Democrats 'don't mind when (Republican) whack-a-dos come in and local candidates have their pictures taken next to them.”

Timing may also be a factor. Most of the visits by 2016ers have been since the June 3 primary election. The New Hampshire primary still is a week away.

Potential presidential candidates tend to avoid potentially messy intraparty primary battles. They prefer to come in to rally the party in support of the nominee.

But the real reason candidates are making more visits to Iowa simply may be there is more activity here, Hagle said. In addition to a gubernatorial race and four congressional races, 'We've got a hot Senate race and they don't.”

'If you have an inclination of running for president, Iowa seems to be the place to be,” Hagle said. Republicans have to win six Senate seats to gain the majority 'and if Joni Ernst is that sixth one, the tipping point, Iowa Republicans will remember that you helped.”

Even if Ernst doesn't win, he said, 'You were here, fighting the good fight, and making connections with officeholders, the political players and the grass roots.”

There may be an even simpler explanation, Hagle suggested.

'Iowa is just nicer than New Hampshire, right?” he said, then added, 'I don't know that they would buy that excuse in New Hampshire.”