Polls show split decision on who’s leading Iowa GOP caucus race

The Iowa Republican caucus race is going down to the wire with a pair of polls released Tuesday delivering a split decision on whether it's Donald Trump or Ted Cruz in the lead.

A Quinnipiac University Poll found Trump maintaining a 2 percentage point lead over Cruz among likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers, 31 to 29 percent. Quinnipiac found the same results when it polled in early January.

But an Iowa State University/WHO-HD poll found the top spots reversed, with 25.8 percent backing Cruz and 18.9 percent favoring Trump.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are jockeying for third in the race that will be decided Monday when Republicans gather at more than 1,600 precinct caucuses around the state.

Quinnipiac had Rubio in third at 15 percent and Carson at 6 percent. The ISU/WHO-HD results were closer, with Carson at 13.4 percent and Rubio at 12.3 percent.

Rounding out the GOP field in the Quinnipiac Poll, Jeb Bush polled at 4 percent, Carson at 6, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3, former chief executive Carly Fiorina at 1, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 2, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 1, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 5, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 0.

ISU/WHO-HD results showed: Rand Paul at 6.9 percent, Bush at 3.8, Huckabee at 3.7, Fiorina at 1.1, and Santorum, Chris Christie and John Kasich at less than 1.

These polls follow ones last week by Monmouth College and Loras College in Dubuque. Monmouth found Cruz leading Trump 27 to 25 percent. Carson was third at 11 and Rubio at 9.

But pollsters say the race for the proverbial three tickets out of Iowa is not settled.

'Between now and caucus night, any number of events and candidate developments can affect the outcome,” said Mack Shelley, chairman of the ISU political science department. 'Watch for any issues that catch fire just before the caucuses, and pay particular attention to any statements candidates make on important issues and last-minute campaign advertising designed to sway undecided voters.”

Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, noted that Sarah Palin's endorsement of Trump and Gov. Terry Branstad's criticism of Cruz, 'and despite - or because of - Sen. Cruz' ‘New York values' comments,” the race is too close to call.

That suggests 'it all comes down to turnout,” he said.

'One week before the caucuses gather, the question is which candidate has the best field organization,” he said. 'If the events of the last two weeks haven't moved the needle, one wonders what would change it in the next six days.”

One thing Brown is more certain of is that it is 'increasingly evident the conservative wing of the Republican Party, at least in Iowa, is carrying the day.”

Cruz is taking the lion's share of the right wing among Iowa likely Republican caucusgoers, with Trump taking a good chunk and only a few scraps for the rest of the pack.

Quinnipiac found Cruz leads Trump:

' 50 to 34 percent among self-identified tea party members;

' 39 to 27 percent among white, born-again evangelical Christians;

' 49 - 29 percent among voters describing themselves as 'very conservative;”

But Trump leads Cruz:

' 29 to 21 percent among self-identified 'somewhat conservative” voters;

' 37 to 6 percent among voters claiming to be 'moderate” or 'liberal.”

The economy and jobs are the most important issues in deciding their vote for 27 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers, according to Quinnipiac. Eighteen percent listed terrorism as the top issue.

ISU/WHO-HD, however, found terrorism has replaced the economy as voters' top concern. In light of the terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., that's no surprise to ISU political science professor James McCormick.

'To be successful, presidential candidates will increasingly need to reassure Iowans - and Americans - that their policies will keep the country safe,” McCormick said. 'Although economic concerns usually dominate the agenda in presidential elections, national security concerns are likely to be equally important for many voters throughout this election cycle.”

Quinnipiac polled 651 Iowa likely Republican caucus participants, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The poll was conducted Jan. 18-24 using live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones. The ISU/WHO-HD poll was compiled through phone interviews with 722 registered voters, including 283 Republicans, Jan. 5-22. The margin of error is approximately plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the full set of respondents.