Poll: Little change in Iowa Democratic caucus race

CEDAR RAPIDS - Despite giving her low grades for handling the economy, likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers are sticking with Hillary Clinton as their choice for the party's 2016 presidential nominee.

However, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released this morning, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has cut into the former Secretary of State's lead.

Quinnipiac found that 51 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers favor Clinton - the same as in October. Sanders' support has edged up from 40 to 42 percent while former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley's support remained unchanged at 4 percent.

Although the results show no gain for Clinton, Quinnipiac's assistant director of polling, Peter Brown, said 'she'll take the status quo.”

'Sometimes running in place is a good thing,” he said. 'She hasn't stretched her lead, but it hasn't shrunk either.”

At this point, 68 days before Iowa's first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses, Sanders is her only real challenger, Brown added.

'The only way Secretary Clinton is going to lose the nomination is a scenario in which she drops the early Iowa and New Hampshire contests to Sen. Sanders, who then might become the ‘momentum' candidate,” Brown said. 'So she'll be just fine if she ‘only' wins by 10 points. She has a big edge in money and party organization in the larger states that follow and where Sanders doesn't poll as well as he does in the early, smaller state contests.”

However, Brown said, the results don't mean that Iowa Democrats are in love with Clinton.

'They even think Sanders would be better handling the economy, generally the hallmark of the candidate who wins the Democratic nomination,” Brown said.

The economy and jobs are most important issue for 36 percent of likely Democratic caucus participants in deciding who to nominate. Fifty percent of Sanders supporters and 44 percent of Clinton backers put it at the top of their lists.

Sanders can best handle the economy, 47 percent of Democrats say, while 42 percent say Clinton is best on this issue.

On the other hand, Brown said, the one thing that unites Iowa Democrats is that Clinton 'looks like a winner in November.”

Asked who has the best chance of winning, 85 percent named Clinton, but only 54 percent said Sanders, according to Quinnipiac. Among Clinton supporters 66 percent say 'best chance of winning” is most important characteristic for a nominee. Only 25 percent of Sanders backers agreed.

However, 92 percent of those backing Sanders say he shares their values compared to 80 percent who say that about Clinton. Sharing their values is the most important characteristic for 65 percent of Sanders' supporters, but only 30 percent of Clinton backers agreed.

There also were differences in which issues were most important to each camp. Quinnipiac found that 15 percent of Democrats - 55 percent of Sanders supporters and 34 percent of Clinton backers - listed climate change as their top issue.

Another 12 percent - 73 percent of Clinton supporters and 23 percent of Sanders followers - identified foreign policy and terrorism as their No. 1 issue.

Sanders outscored Clinton for honesty and trustworthiness 89 percent to 68 percent and both received an 81 percent favorability rating from likely caucusgoers.

Also, Clinton bested Sanders 94 to 79 percent for having strong leadership qualities and 94 to 66 percent for having the right kind of experience to be president. Sanders topped Clinton 92 to 80 percent for caring about voters' needs and problems.

Quinnipiac also found that by 81 to 13 percent, Iowa Democrats support accepting Syrian refugees into the U.S. and by 80 to 14 percent support accepting them into Iowa.

Although by a 41 to 31 percent margin Democrats said the United States and its allies are losing the fight against ISIS, by a 58 to 33 percent margin they oppose sending U.S. ground troops to Syria.

From Nov. 16-22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 543 likely Iowa Democratic caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cellphones.

For more on the poll, visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.