Outsiders are running away with the Republican race

DES MOINES — Donald Trump's campaign has defied almost all the conventional wisdom regarding what it takes to win the Iowa caucuses.

With Iowa Republicans set to caucus Monday night, several important questions will remain unanswered until all the secret ballots are counted.

Iowa campaign veterans and experts say these are the five most pressing keys to the caucus:

1. Trump turnout

Will Trump turn those huge crowds into caucus supporters? That was easily the top question posed by the experts.

Trump frequently drew hundreds, sometimes thousands to his campaign events. But often, the crowd was a mixture of Iowans and out-of-staters, and some said they were there for the spectacle, not as supporters.

Whether Trump can turn those crowds into caucusgoers will go a long way toward deciding what polls say is a close race in Iowa between Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

'The larger the turnout of new caucus attendees, the higher the probability of a Trump caucus night victory,' said Matt Strawn, a former state party chairman.

Some media reports have suggested Trump's campaign lacks the organization to churn out caucus supporters. But Robert Haus, who has worked on several campaigns in Iowa and also has been a political consultant, said Trump has a solid Iowa campaign team.

'The candidate who has built his campaign around the concept of winning can't afford to lose,' Haus said. 'His events have been huge, his team is knowledgeable and they know how to organize. They will need to deliver those new voters to contend with Cruz's ground operation.'

2. Cruz organization

Experts and observers have lauded Cruz's campaign infrastructure, which has been described as expansive and technologically savvy.

If those observations are true, it could make the difference between gold and silver on caucus night for Cruz, Strawn said.

'Is conventional wisdom that Cruz has the most robust organization in the state accurate? If turnout resembles recent history, rather than a significant increase, then his organization may well be the difference,' Strawn said.

3. Cruz vs. corn

Gov. Terry Branstad said a Cruz victory would be 'tragic' for Iowa, given the candidate's opposition to the federal ethanol mandate that benefits Iowa's agricultural economy. Cruz, who said he opposes all federal energy subsidies and mandates, stated he would phase out the ethanol mandate over five years.

'Cruz has the much better ground game, but he's also been hit hard on the (ethanol) issue and whether he's flip-flopped on some issues,' said Timothy Hagle, a political-science professor at the University of Iowa who wrote a book on the 2012 caucuses. 'Will that hurt him relative to Trump? Might some go with (Florida Sen. Marco) Rubio instead? Cruz will want as much separation from Rubio as possible here in Iowa because he will want some momentum for New Hampshire, where (Cruz) hasn't been polling as well.'

Doug Gross, who has been Branstad's chief of staff and chaired Mitt Romney's 2008 presidential campaign in Iowa, said the ethanol issue could be Cruz's deciding factor.

'I think (the ethanol issue) has had some impact,' Gross said. 'It will be interesting to see whether that (limited) his potential vote. It probably will make the difference between whether he wins or loses, I think.'

4. Moderate lane

Trump and Cruz, who hold a comfortable lead in the polls in Iowa, are considered so-called outsider candidates. Trump, a billionaire businessman and reality television star, has never held elected office and frequently decries political correctness. Cruz is a Tea Party firebrand whose tactics have rankled some of his fellow U.S. senators, including Republicans.

The expansive GOP field thus far has not coalesced around a more traditional or moderate candidate. Current and former governors Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich, for example, remain mired in the middle or bottom of the pack in the polls.

With no moderate candidate emerging, the outsiders are running away with the race in Iowa.

'Right now, those (moderate) Republican voters are largely split among Bush, Christie, Rubio and to a lesser degree Kasich,' Strawn said. 'Can one candidate consolidate that support into a strong, top-three finish and a boost of momentum into New Hampshire?'

Gross thinks one of the moderate candidates will surge late and finish strong Monday night.

'It's between Bush and Rubio and Kasich and Christie. I get a sense here in the eleventh hour that there is some movement' in the polls, Gross said. 'We'll see if that occurs.'

John Stineman, who works as a political consultant and managed Steve Forbes's 2000 presidential campaign in Iowa, said because the field of moderate candidates has not been winnowed, there may be more than the traditional three tickets out of Iowa.

'With a crowded GOP field and much uncertainty in the 'establishment' lane of the race, a strong showing by Bush, Christie or Kasich — all of whom are doing reasonably well in New Hampshire — in the fourth-place slot could give them enough energy to prosecute their case in the Granite State,' he said.

5. Rand Paul

In 2012, libertarian supporters of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas took the Iowa Republican caucuses and even the state party structure by storm.

This year, it does not appear those libertarians have automatically shifted their allegiance to Ron Paul's son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who is in the middle of the pack in polling on the race.

Rand Paul has been courting younger voters and pitching less common GOP campaign issues such as criminal justice reform and an opposition to bulk data collection by federal surveillance programs.

'He won't do anywhere near as well as his father did, but they are still very well organized and have been working campuses very heavily,' Hagle said. 'I expect that he will do better than what the polls show, but it will be interesting to see how close he comes to double digits.'

Experts say Iowa caucus results are as much about exceeding or failing to meet expectations as they are the one-two-three finish. So if Rand Paul successfully turns out young voters, he could enjoy a caucus night bump.

'If the Paul campaign is successful in finding 10,000 new votes among college students as they have boasted, he could be poised for a top-five finish,' Strawn said. 'While not enough to grab major headlines, it (would be) enough to keep him alive in a field that is sure to winnow.'