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New Iowa Poll shows Trump with strong lead over fellow Republican presidential hopefuls
Trump also was clear winner in the Iowa Secretary of State’s presidential straw poll at Iowa State Fair
DES MOINES — A new pair of Iowa polls, both regular and straw, show former President Donald Trump with a commanding lead over the expansive field of Republican candidates for president.
Trump’s advantage roughly five months out from the Republican Iowa caucuses, the first state nominating contest in next year’s presidential selection process, showed up over the weekend in both the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, and the Iowa Secretary of State’s State Fair Straw Poll.
In the Iowa Poll, Trump was the choice of 42 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus participants, a full 23 percentage points ahead of the next-highest polling candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 19 percent.
No other candidate reached double digits in the poll. South Carolina U.S. Sen. Tim Scott led the rest of the pack at 9 percent, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in a tight pack not far behind.
The poll was conducted Aug. 13 to Aug. 17, and was based on telephone interviews with 406 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses. The poll’s margin for error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points
The Iowa Poll is conducted by Selzer and Co. and is widely considered the gold standard in Iowa polling. The firm has an A+ rating from the data journalism website fivethirtyeight.com.
The new Iowa Poll shows both strengths in Trump’s lead and opportunities for the other candidates.
Precisely two-thirds of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers said their support for Trump is locked in, while only 31 percent of those supporting DeSantis said the same.
On the other hand, DeSantis nearly matches Trump when the poll tabulates responses to the question of likely caucusgoers’ first, second and third choices.
Trump was 42 percent of respondents’ first choice, 10 percent of second choices and 12 percent of third choices for a total of 63 percent. DeSantis was 19 percent of respondents’ first choice, 20 percent of second choices (the largest in the field) and 22 percent of third choices for a total of 61 percent, just behind Trump.
The Republican Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 15.
Trump wins Iowa State Fair Straw Poll
Former President Donald Trump was the most popular pick in the Iowa Secretary of State’s 2023 State Fair Straw Poll, clocking in at a top percentage very close to his 42 percent in the Iowa Poll.
Trump was the choice of 42.5 percent of participants in the State Fair Straw Poll, which is an unscientific survey that is available to everyone at the Iowa State Fair, regardless of voter registration status, age or even residence. The poll is featured at the Iowa Secretary of State’s booth during the fair.
In the State Fair Straw Poll, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received the second-highest share of votes at 15.3 percent. South Carolina U.S. Sen. Tim Scott was third at 11.1 percent and Ohio tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy fourth at 9.4 percent.
“We conduct the State Fair Straw Poll each year to encourage voter registration and participation in Iowa’s general elections,” Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate said in a news release. “Voting is the best way to ensure Iowans’ voices are heard, and I want every eligible Iowan to register to vote.”
Iowa treasurer endorses Vivek Ramaswamy
Ohio tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has been endorsed by Iowa Treasurer Roby Smith, the Ramaswamy campaign announced.
Smith is the first statewide Iowa Republican official to endorse a candidate in the presidential primary.
“Vivek Ramaswamy is a businessman, a fiscal conservative, and a champion of the taxpayer. He shares my ideals and the ideals of many Iowa families and small business owners,” Smith said in a news release from the Ramaswamy campaign. “As President, (Ramaswamy) will reduce spending, cut taxes, and work with the private sector to grow jobs and the economy.”
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