More riding on debate for Hatch than Branstad

DES MOINES - Democratic challenger Jack Hatch needs a 'breakout moment” or a breakdown by incumbent Republican Terry Branstad in Saturday evening's face-to-face debate to tighten Iowa's 2014 race for governor in the campaign's closing weeks, political experts said Friday.

Hatch, a three-term state senator from Des Moines, is struggling to keep pace in public-opinion polls showing Branstad the favorite to win an unprecedented sixth four-year term when Iowans cast their ballots in the November general election.

That raises the stakes for a candidate competing in his first statewide election and participating in his second televised debate at a Burlington junior high school.

'Hatch needs a breakout moment,” said Drake University political science professor Dennis Goldford, heading into the one-hour event beginning Saturday at 7 p.m. that is sponsored by the Greater Burlington Partnership with The Hawk Eye and KWQC TV-6. The debate also will be aired to a statewide TV audience on C-SPAN. The focus will be on economic prosperity and job creation.

'There's the image of this tiny little guy beating on the big door of the giant in the castle. He's got to do something that is more of a breakout moment than the commercial with the sleepy cats and everything,” Goldford said. 'All that's cute and so forth, but is it really driving his message home?”

Christopher Larimer, as assistant professor of political science at the University of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls said Hatch is approaching a make-or-break point in the campaign to make a move toward closing the gap on the Republican incumbent. Without some movement in the polls soon, Hatch will reach a point 'where the race is essentially over” as early-voting options begin.

'I think it's just a tough road for Hatch,” said Latimer, especially going up against 'one of the most-powerful incumbents in the history of Iowa politics” in a midterm election-cycle that doesn't favor Democratic candidates.

'Somehow he has to try to create serious doubt in voters' minds about Gov. Branstad and what Gov. Branstad is doing is bad for the state. That's pretty hard when most people think the state is on the right track,” he added. Hatch would have to come with something 'pretty big” that would 'shake voters to the core” and Latimer said 'I think that's pretty hard to do at this point.”

Tim Hagle, a University of Iowa associate professor of political science who has been active in Republican politics, was hesitant to call Saturday's debate make-or-break for Hatch but he said the challenger's opportunities to make a big impression 'are becoming more and more limited.”

'Even if Hatch does a really good job, he would also have to have a complete breakdown by Gov. Branstad and that's not likely to happen for the governor to really step in it or make some huge mistake that then really hurts him in someway,” Hagle said. 'I kind of doubt that would happen. Branstad's fairly experienced and his campaign is not taking it lightly or as a given that he's a shoo-in for re-election.”

Hatch will benefit from being on equal footing when he and Branstad meet on the debate stage given that the GOP incumbent has a huge edge in fundraising and paid media, Hagle noted. But the debate format can pose challenges in trying to punch through a message that your opponent can immediately counter, he added.

'If he's going to make a splash, this is the time to do it but, on the other hand, there's only so much you can do in a debate,” Hagle said. 'It's an opportunity. If you do well with that opportunity, you still have to capitalize on that.